AST SpaceMobile vs. Firefly Aerospace: Which Space Infrastructure Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

As space-based infrastructure moves from theory to commercial reality, many investors are eyeing high-growth pioneers. Is AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) or Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ:FLY) the better bet for your portfolio?

AST SpaceMobile aims to turn every smartphone into a satellite phone using its unique orbital network. Firefly Aerospace focuses on the logistics of space, providing launch vehicles and lunar landers for government and commercial clients. Both represent speculative plays in the growing space economy.

The case for AST SpaceMobile

AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular network designed to connect directly with everyday smartphones. It has secured commercial agreements with major providers such as AT&T Corp (NYSE:T), Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ), and Vodafone (NASDAQ:VOD). The company is carving out a niche among communication stocks by focusing on direct-to-device connectivity. Partnerships with over 50 mobile network operators worldwide provide the company with access to a potential user base of nearly 3 billion subscribers.

In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, the company reported revenue of nearly $71 million. This represents growth of approximately 1,500% compared to the prior year. Despite the jump in sales, the company reported a net loss of roughly $342 million for the period. This resulted in a net margin of around negative 480% as the company continues to invest heavily in its orbital constellation.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is 1.2x. This metric compares a company's total debt to its shareholder equity, and a ratio above 1.0 indicates that liabilities exceed the net value owned by shareholders. The current ratio, which measures a company's ability to pay short-term debts with short-term assets, is a robust 16.4x. Free cash flow was nearly negative $1.1 billion, representing the cash a company generates after accounting for capital expenditures.

The case for Firefly Aerospace

Firefly Aerospace provides end-to-end space services, helping customers launch and operate vehicles in low Earth orbit and beyond. The company serves a diversified group of national security agencies and commercial entities. Key customers and collaborators include NASA and the U.S. Space Force, alongside industry giants like Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT) and Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC). This broad base is supported by a backlog of roughly $1.4 billion as of late 2025.

In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, revenue totaled nearly $160 million. This was an increase of approximately 160% over the previous fiscal year. The company reported a net loss of more than $298 million for the same period. This led to a net margin of approximately negative 190%, which is an improvement from the even deeper losses recorded in the previous year.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.3x. This figure indicates the company uses relatively low levels of debt compared to its equity. Its current ratio is roughly 4.5x, suggesting the firm has enough short-term assets to cover its immediate liabilities several times over. Free cash flow was close to negative $238 million, indicating the amount of cash used after accounting for spending on physical assets.

Risk profile comparison

The company faces significant risks related to the development of its SpaceMobile Service, which relies on untested technology and complex satellites. It also needs to raise substantial capital to fund its constellation beyond currently funded levels. The business faces intense competition from providers like Globalstar Corp (NASDAQ:GSAT) and Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) in the race for mobile satellite dominance. Furthermore, it is navigating pending securities class action lawsuits alleging misleading statements.

Firefly Aerospace faces risks from potential launch failures or delays, such as the September 2025 testing event involving its Alpha rocket. Growth is heavily dependent on sustained government spending and the success of upcoming lunar missions. The business is also navigating federal securities class action lawsuits, which have increased legal scrutiny. Additionally, the company is subject to potential trade tariffs that could impact the cost and availability of critical aerospace components.

Valuation comparison

Firefly Aerospace appears to be the more conservatively valued option based on its lower Forward P/E relative to future earnings estimates.

The P/S ratio, which measures market value against sales over the past twelve months, also helps distinguish these two space firms.

Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

AST SpaceMobile expects its space-based network to give it a significant business in a few years. Essentially, AST SpaceMobile is a direct-to-device play, providing full mobile phone compatibility with major carriers without the need for specialized equipment. Many of its potential clients are also equity holders in the company, including AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), American Tower (NYSE:AMT), Bell Canada, Telus (NYSE:TU), and Rakuten in Japan.

By the end of the year, the company should have 45 satellites, which will allow it to fully service the U.S., and that should start to supercharge revenue growth. For fiscal 2026, Wall Street sees $149 million in sales, jumping to $725 million the following year, when the company is projected to turn its first modest profit. Free cash flow appears much more manageable, with analysts expecting positive free cash flow in 2029.

Firefly went public in an initial public offering a little more than a year ago at $45 a share. Shares have spent much of the past year below that mark, reflecting typical post-IPO volatility.

More important is the company's recent business success. Firefly Aerospace is the only private company to achieve a successful lunar landing, doing so in March 2025 with its Blue Ghost Mission I. The success of that effort has ingratiated Firefly with NASA, which sent 10 payloads to the Moon with last year's mission. The company now plans annual missions to the Moon to deliver payloads for NASA as part of the agency's goal of constructing a permanent lunar base. Exciting stuff, and considering the attention the Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) IPO has been bringing to space businesses, that can only be another positive for Firefly.

While future projections are inherently speculative, Wall Street analysts expect Firefly to top $440 million this year and reach $1 billion in annual revenue in its fiscal 2028.

Both stocks are exciting opportunities to invest in space-based enterprises, but AST SpaceMobile looks just too rich right now given its forward P/E ratio and its P/S ratio. Firefly, much more reasonable with a forward P/E under 22, is the better buy in 2026.

Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile, Alphabet, American Tower, Firefly Aerospace, and Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool recommends TELUS, Verizon Communications, and Vodafone Group Public. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.