Cerebras Systems vs. Nebius Group N.V.: Which AI Hardware Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Investors seeking exposure to the infrastructure powering the artificial intelligence revolution often find themselves choosing between Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS) and Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ:NBIS) as both scale rapidly.

Cerebras Systems focuses on revolutionary hardware designed to simplify large-scale computing, while Nebius Group N.V. provides an integrated cloud platform for model development. Both companies are carving out significant niches by offering alternatives to traditional hyperscale providers in an increasingly crowded market.

The case for Cerebras Systems

Cerebras Systems designs specialized AI computing systems centered around its proprietary wafer-scale chips, which are significantly larger than traditional processors. This approach allows the company to serve high-demand sectors such as medical research, energy, and cryptography by providing massive processing power for AI training. By offering both physical hardware and cloud-based services, the company targets organizations that require rapid inference speeds within the semiconductor stocks landscape.

In its latest annual report, filed for FY 2025, revenue reached about $510 million, representing a robust 76% increase over the prior year. The company successfully pivoted to profitability during this period, reporting net income of approximately $238 million. This resulted in a net margin of close to 47%, a significant improvement compared to the heavy losses recorded in the previous two fiscal years.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the company reported a debt-to-equity ratio of negative 0.5x, which indicates that total liabilities exceed shareholder equity. The so-called current ratio, which measures a company's ability to cover short-term obligations with short-term assets, stands at roughly 2.1x. Free cash flow for FY 2025 was approximately negative $393 million, showing that the business is still consuming cash to fund its expansion and research efforts.

The case for Nebius Group N.V.

Nebius Group N.V. positions itself as an all-in-one AI cloud company, providing a platform that manages everything from data processing to the deployment of production-ready models. The company serves a diverse global client base across healthcare, financial services, and retail, focusing on the infrastructure needed for physical AI and robotics. This unified platform approach is designed to reduce the complexity for developers who are trying to scale their AI applications without managing disparate hardware vendors.

For FY 2025, the company reported revenue of approximately $530 million, which marked an explosive 351% growth rate compared to FY 2024. Net income for the year was nearly $102 million, yielding a net margin of roughly 19%. While this performance reflects a strong recovery from previous losses, the company remains in a hyper-growth phase where top-line expansion is prioritized over consistent bottom-line stability.

According to its December 2025 balance sheet, Nebius Group N.V. carries a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 1.1x, meaning its total debt is slightly higher than its shareholder equity. Its current ratio is a healthy 3.1x, providing a substantial cushion for its operational needs. Note that stock-based compensation represented roughly 21.6% of operating cash flow, which inflates reported cash generation since SBC is a non-cash expense added back in the cash flow statement. Free cash flow for the period was nearly -$3.7 billion.

Risk profile comparison

Cerebras Systems faces intense competition from established giants in the hardware space, including Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) and larger chip manufacturers with deeper pockets. The company must also contend with rapid technological obsolescence, as any breakthrough by a rival could render its wafer-scale architecture less competitive. Furthermore, its reliance on specialized manufacturing processes could lead to supply chain bottlenecks if demand for its unique chips suddenly outpaces production capacity.

Nebius Group N.V. operates in a capital-intensive sector where it must compete against massive cloud providers like Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN). These competitors have significantly more resources to build out data centers and subsidize their AI offerings to capture market share. Additionally, the company is subject to the risks of operating across multiple international jurisdictions, which can lead to regulatory hurdles and varying compliance costs as data privacy laws evolve globally.

Valuation comparison

Nebius Group N.V. currently trades at a significantly lower multiple of future earnings estimates, though its price-to-sales ratio remains slightly higher than that of Cerebras Systems.

Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

These are both companies projected to see incredible growth in the coming years.

Wall Street analyst consensus figures show Cerebras producing about $888 million in sales in fiscal 2026, exploding to about $3 billion in 2027 and $7.5 billion in 2028.

Nebius, meanwhile, is projected to make $3.3 billion in sales in 2026, then an astonishing $12 billion in 2027 and $23 billion the year after.

For both businesses, the estimates are so aggressive it is difficult to take them at face value. Remember, these are both young businesses, and analyst estimates going years out and are very speculative, relying on many things going exactly as planned.

Cerebras has transformative partnerships with OpenAI and Amazon's AWS. Much of Cerebras's projected growth relies on the AI inference market growing from $66 billion last year to $292 billion by 2029. That seems like a big bet to take with a biug reward if growth continues.

Similarly, Nebius projects that the prices of the services and hardware they provide to hyperscalers will keep rising. Management says its market share is perhaps 5% to 10%, which means there is space to capture more of a massive market.

If you feel comfortable taking a high-risk, high-reward bet on ever-expansive AI spending projections, then the choice here is Nebius, given its less expensive ratios compared to Cerebras, and the explosive projections for its revenue growth.

Brendan Coffey has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.