Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $100,000? The Answer Might Surprise You.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) soared to a peak of $126,080 per coin last year, before embarking on a sharp decline that erased more than half its value. It traded as low as $58,566 in July, but it has since bounced to $86,300 as of Sept. 22.

Bitcoin launched in 2009, so it doesn't have a very long track record compared with other assets, like bonds, stocks, gold, or real estate. However, it has consistently climbed to new highs after every major sell-off to date, so should investors buy it while it's still trading for less than $100,000? The answer might surprise you.

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Incredible historical returns

Bitcoin has a few unique attributes that have fueled its popularity. First, it's fully decentralized so it can't be controlled by any person, company, or government. Second, it has a capped supply of 21 million coins, creating the perception of scarcity. And third, it's built on an accurate and secure system of record called the blockchain, which can't be manipulated.

Although the cryptocurrency remains significantly below last year's all-time high, it's still one of the best-performing assets of the past decade. With a return of 14,200%, it has obliterated real estate, gold, and stock market indexes like the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and the Nasdaq-100.

Bitcoin Price data by YCharts

But according to many of Bitcoin's biggest believers, there might be plenty of upside left in the tank. Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) co-founder Michael Saylor thinks the cryptocurrency will reach $21 million per coin during the next two decades, based on the notion it will become the world's reserve currency.

That would give Bitcoin a market capitalization of $441 trillion, making it six times more valuable than all 500 companies in the S&P 500 combined, and 14 times more valuable than the annual output of the whole U.S. economy. In other words, investors probably shouldn't pin their hopes on Saylor's target -- after all, Strategy owns a whopping $64 billion worth of Bitcoin, so he has a vested interest in making bullish public forecasts.

Ark Investment Management, which is run by technology investor Cathie Wood, has a slightly more conservative target. The firm predicts Bitcoin's market cap will reach $16 trillion by 2030, translating to a price of $761,900 per coin.

Ark points to six catalysts that could drive the increase in value, like Bitcoin's recognition by many investors as a digital version of gold. As I mentioned, the cryptocurrency is decentralized and relatively scarce, which is why many analysts compare it to the shiny yellow metal. Ark's base case is for Bitcoin to capture 40% of the market cap of real gold, which currently stands at $30.4 trillion. That alone would account for $12.2 trillion of the firm's $16 trillion target.

Increasing Bitcoin adoption among both institutional investors and citizens in emerging-market economies are two of the other bullish catalysts Ark references.

A new all-time high isn't guaranteed after Bitcoin's latest stumble

Bitcoin's recent peak-to-trough decline of 53% probably felt unnerving for investors, but it has lost more than 70% of its value on two other occasions in the past decade alone -- first in 2018, and then again in 2022. It fully recovered and set new record highs after both of those stumbles, but investors might want to temper their expectations this time around.

First of all, Bitcoin still lacks a true use case. It can technically be used as a payment mechanism, but a mere 7,130 businesses have signed up to accept it since 2009 (according to crypto directory Cryptwerk), so it isn't gaining much traction. Therefore, it won't be replacing traditional money anytime soon.

Second of all, the idea that Bitcoin should be considered a digital version of gold might not hold water after the events of last year. The Trump administration imposed sweeping tariffs on the U.S.'s trading partners, wreaking havoc in the global economy. The government also ran a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion during fiscal 2025 (ended Sept. 30), which sent the national debt hurtling toward $40 trillion.

Even though those headwinds sent the U.S. dollar tumbling, Bitcoin still declined by 5% in 2025. Real gold, on the other hand, soared by 64%, so investors made a clear choice when they needed a safe asset.

Gold Price in US Dollars data by YCharts

Therefore, while Bitcoin is clearly recovering from its recent low, I think it lacks the fundamentals to meaningfully exceed last year's peak, let alone reach the heights predicted by Saylor and Ark Invest. That's why I personally won't be buying it, even though it's below $100,000.

Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.