Nvidia Stock Split in 2026? My Prediction: It's Unlikely, but the Stock Is Still a Buy.

While an Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) stock split in 2026 isn't impossible, I think it's highly unlikely. The company last completed a stock split in 2024, when its share price stood at roughly $1,200. After the 10-for-1 split, the company's stock traded at roughly $120 per share.

Currently, it's trading around $210 per share, which is likely not a high enough pure-dollar level to encourage the company to reorganize its stock structure.

That said, I still think that Nvidia stands out as a worthwhile long-term investment.

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Nvidia's growth outlook and competitive positioning are strong

Nvidia and other leading AI stocks have recently seen some downward valuation pressures connected to increased calls for safety guardrails and other regulations around the progression of artificial intelligence (AI) development. These technologies are evolving fast, and there are good reasons to be concerned. On the other hand, I expect that the intensifying focus on the dangers that AI poses will ultimately have a relatively small impact on Nvidia's growth trajectory.

While leading figures from top AI companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and Space Exploration Technologies have recently highlighted the need for a more forward-looking approach to navigating the dangers of artificial intelligence, I think it's unlikely that any of them will reduce their spending on advancing their AI initiatives.

Of those three companies, only SpaceX is public right now -- but keep an eye on quarterly reports from it and other public, AI-focused businesses such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, and see if any of them announce a reduction in capital expenditure plans for the coming year or suggest that they expect to reduce their investments in compute infrastructure further out. It's probably not going to happen.

In its latest quarterly report (for Q2 fiscal 2027), Nvidia guided for sales growth of roughly 70% in its next fiscal year. It was the first time that the AI hardware leader had provided guidance for the next fiscal year in a fiscal Q2 report, and that unprecedented move was made possible because of the strength of the demand backdrop. The company also guided for gross margins of between 72% and 73% in its fiscal 2028.

Nvidia is now shipping its Vera Rubin architecture -- a platform built around the Rubin graphics processing unit (GPU) and its Vera central processing unit (CPU). This next generation of processing power offers substantial improvements in compute capacity, which will support further advancements in high-end AI models. The company is also selling its Vera CPUs separately, which will help the tech leader achieve a wider foothold in the server CPU market. While GPUs continue to be the most important processing components in advanced AI, Nvidia is moving to significantly increase its ability to win in multiple data center spending categories.

Stock splits shouldn't be the foundation for a long-term investment

Stock splits have been hotly anticipated events in recent years. By multiplying shares and bringing down the pure-dollar stock price, companies can make their stocks more appealing to some retail investors. This can increase buying action and send the company's share price higher.

There has also been a self-reinforcing bullish effect with stock splits recently. When a stock split is highly expected or announced, investors anticipate bullish momentum as a result. The increased buying action to take advantage of this expected dynamic often increases the company's valuation.

On the other hand, stock splits don't do anything to change a company's fundamentals. The good news there is that Nvidia's fundamentals continue to look strong. It is growing its sales and earnings at incredible rates for a company of its size, and the broadening of its tech product stack seemingly has the business on track to score wins that will further diversify the business and open up new growth channels.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.