There's a 58% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike in October. These Are Stocks to Buy Anyway.

Many investors breathed a sigh of relief when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose to leave rates unchanged at its latest meeting. However, the reprieve might not last long.

CME Group's (NASDAQ: CME) FedWatch estimates the probability that the FOMC will increase rates in its next meeting in mid-September at 44.1%, based on 30-day Fed funds futures prices. FedWatch projects a 57.7% chance of a rate hike at the FOMC meeting scheduled for late October.

Rising rates are usually bad for many stocks. That isn't the case for all of them, though. Here are stocks to buy even if a rate increase is right around the corner.

Image source: Getty Images.

3 stocks to buy anyway

1. UnitedHealth Group

I'd put UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) high on the list of stocks to buy even if rate hikes are in store. Americans can't afford to cancel their health insurance just because the Fed increases the federal funds rate by 25 or 50 basis points.

Importantly, UnitedHealth's turnaround appears to be the real deal. The health insurance stock is up more than 20% year to date. UnitedHealth's earnings jumped roughly 54% year over year in the second quarter of 2026. Management raised the company's full-year guidance due to the improving outlook.

2. JPMorgan Chase

Bank stocks actually benefit from higher rates because they boost net interest income -- the spread between what banks charge borrowers and what they pay depositors. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) ranks as the world's largest bank by market cap, so it stands to benefit more than most.

JPMorgan's net interest income totaled $25.6 billion in Q2, up 10% year over year. Should the FOMC raise rates in October, look for this financial services giant to make even more money.

3. Chevron

Why might the Fed be forced to raise rates? Resurging inflation. And why is inflation higher than it was earlier this year? Higher fuel prices due primarily to the Iran war. Oil stocks have been solid winners in 2026 because of these dynamics. Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is no exception, with its shares up more than 20% year to date.

If the FOMC votes to raise rates in October (or at any of its meetings during the rest of the year), it will likely be due to sustained high fuel prices keeping overall inflation elevated. Chevron's business should be humming along nicely in such an environment, making its stock attractive to investors seeking safe havens amid rising rates.

What if rates don't rise?

A 58% probability of a rate hike implies a 42% chance that rates won't rise. How would UnitedHealth Group, JPMorgan Chase, and Chevron perform if rates remain flat or even decrease? Probably pretty well.

UnitedHealth is relatively rate-neutral, but its momentum should continue no matter what the Fed does. JPMorgan's investment banking and asset management units would likely benefit if rates don't rise. Chevron's shares could decline somewhat if oil prices fall (which would be likely in a no-rate-hike scenario). However, the stock is still a solid long-term pick.

JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Keith Speights has positions in Chevron. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends CME Group, Chevron, and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.