If the SpaceX Stock Price Falls to $63, Here's What History Suggests Could Happen Next
Key Points
In its first earnings report as a public company, SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in revenue for the second quarter of 2026.
Capital expenditures increased by $2.8 billion to $18.4 billion for the quarter, and the stock price dropped following the report and accompanying earnings call.
If the SpaceX stock price follows a similar path as when Facebook (now Meta Platforms) first went public, the stock price could bottom out at around $63.
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Anyone who expected the 2026 second-quarter earnings report from Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) on Aug. 4 to boost the stock price didn't get it. In after-hours trading following the report and earnings call, SpaceX's stock price was down more than 8%.
We'll quickly look at why the earnings weren't enough to immediately send the stock price higher, as well as why $63 could be an important price level for investors to watch.
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Why the quarter didn't move the needle
SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in revenue for the second quarter, a 92% jump from the prior-year period. Revenue for its artificial intelligence (AI) division tripled to $2.6 billion, and revenue from SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, climbed 66% to $4.3 billion.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk also projected SpaceX could hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, a year earlier than the 2031 time frame previously forecast.
That said, it wasn't enough to send the stock price higher. An investing theme of 2026 has been expecting greater returns and progress from companies investing more in AI infrastructure build-outs, and SpaceX is no exception, especially given its unprofitable status. For the second quarter, capital expenditures totaled $18.4 billion, an increase of $2.8 billion.
The immediate selling after the earnings report doesn't guarantee the stock price will keep dropping. But if it does, history offers a useful comparison to keep in mind.
The $63 price point
Sometimes, history helps by offering examples of how to frame risk against reward.
While not on the same scale in terms of valuation, Facebook, now Meta Platforms, was a highly anticipated initial public offering in May 2012. Its life as a public company, however, was rocky out of the gate. When Mark Zuckerberg's social network went public, shares were already down 53% roughly four months later. That may have seemed like a time to give up on the stock, but it turned out to be a bottom for Facebook's stock price.
According to Barron's, over the next 12 months, the Facebook stock price shot up 140%. Even more impressive were the long-term gains, as the stock price climbed 3,250% from that bottom to July 28, 2026.
If the SpaceX stock price were to follow a similar path, a 53% drop from its IPO offering price of $135 would place it in the $63 range. Again, nothing says it will drop that low, but as history has shown, more aggressive investors who believe in SpaceX's long-term vision and plan to hold the stock for years could view any continued pullback as a buying opportunity.
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Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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