Should You Buy Apple Stock Before July 30?

We're thick into earnings season, and one of the biggest stocks on the planet is reporting on Thursday. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report its fiscal third-quarter results shortly after the market closes, with its earnings call to follow an hour later.

Stocks tend to move on earnings news, and Apple is no exception. But that doesn't mean you should buy ahead of Apple's telltale financial update. A lot can still go wrong, and if you're investing for the long haul, an impulsive short-term decision isn't necessary. However, if you were planning to pick up a piece of the class act of Cupertino this week, deciding whether to buy before or after Thursday afternoon's report is pretty important. Let's go over the bull and bear case to see if you might want to become an Apple investor -- or increase your exposure -- before the market closes on July 30.

Image source: Getty Images.

The case to buy

Momentum is on Apple's side. Revenue growth is accelerating for the third fiscal year in a row. The 17% top-line jump it posted in its latest quarter is its strongest increase since the fiscal fourth quarter of 2021. Diluted earnings per share rose even faster, climbing 22% for the three-month period ending in late March.

Apple delivered double-digit growth across all its geographic territories. Its high-margin services revenue scored a new high. The iPhone 17 line continues to sell well, and the launch of the entry-level MacBook Neo has been well received without undercutting the aspirational nature of the Apple brand.

Analysts see a similar scenario playing out for this week's big reveal. They are targeting 16% revenue growth and a 20% bump in the bottom line. That could be better, and it probably will be better on the bottom line. Apple has landed 3% to 10% above Wall Street profit targets in every quarter over the past year.

Apple stock hit a new all-time high on Monday and has soared 58% over the past year. Yet despite the rising share price, Apple's board authorized an additional $100 billion in buybacks earlier this year. It believes the upside remains. Betting on winners is a sound strategy, but it's not perfect.

The case to not buy

I've owned Apple long enough for it to be a 14-bagger in my portfolio, but I'm not a buyer this week. I'm impressed by Apple's ability to post a nearly five-year high in revenue growth in this climate of inflationary fears, geopolitical concerns, and tariff-wielding.

I've also been a student of Apple long enough to know the cyclical trap of enthusiasm. Apple is posting double-digit growth again, but how long will it last? What do you see when you run down Apple's revenue growth since Steve Jobs passed away in 2011?

• 2012: 45%
• 2013: 9%
• 2014: 7%
• 2015: 28%
• 2016: -8%
• 2017: 6%
• 2018: 16%
• 2019: -2%
• 2020: 6%
• 2021: 33%
• 2022: 8%
• 2023: -3%
• 2024: 2%
• 2025: 6%

Revenue may be a lock to rise at a double-digit pace this year, but there hasn't been a sequel in the past 14 fiscal years. It could be different this time, but success has been fleeting in the post-Jobs era.

The stock's market-thumping momentum over the past year makes the valuation argument harder to make. Apple is now trading for 35 times next fiscal year's profit target. The consumer tech bellwether is still a rock star, but the downside seems greater than the upside following Thursday's financial update.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.