Markets in 2026: Will gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar make history again? — These are how leading institutions think

After a turbulent 2025, what lies ahead for commodities, forex, and cryptocurrency markets in 2026?

1. Gold (XAU/USD) 

In 2025, gold prices rose 60% — the largest annual increase since 1979 — benefiting from multiple tailwinds: the Fed’s rate cuts, sustained central bank buying, and recurring geopolitical tensions.

Looking ahead to 2026, the World Gold Council indicates that gold prices are likely to deliver further surprises. With additional Fed rate cuts, U.S. dollar weakness, and intensifying geopolitical risks anticipated, gold could rise 5%–15% in 2026.

In extreme cases — such as a global economic slowdown and aggressive Fed easing — gold could potentially climb 15% to 30% in the coming year.

Major investment banks remain broadly bullish on gold, with price targets clustering between USD 4,500 and USD 5,000 per ounce.

Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach USD 4,900/oz by the end of 2026, supported by continued growth in central bank demand and ETF inflows.

Bank of America holds that expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and rising debt will provide persistent support for gold. It forecasts a USD 5,000/oz price in 2026.

2. Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

In 2025, Bitcoin prices hit a historical high before retreating, ending the year nearly flat.

Looking ahead, Standard Chartered revised its Bitcoin price target downward from USD 200,000 to USD 150,000, citing expectations that the crypto treasury firm (Digital Asset Treasury, DAT) will cease bitcoin purchases, though ETF inflows should remain a strong boost.

Bernstein also projects Bitcoin to reach USD 150,000 in 2026 and USD 200,000 in 2027.

Bernstein argues that Bitcoin has broken its four-year cyclical pattern and is now in an elongated bull cycle. Morgan Stanley believes the opposite, warning that the Bitcoin four-year cycle still remains and the bull market is nearing its end.

3. Nasdaq 100 (NAS100)

In 2025, the Nasdaq 100 Index gained 22%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 18% gain and marking its third consecutive year of growth.

Most institutions anticipate continued strong U.S. equity performance in 2026, underpinned by persistent AI investment.

JPMorgan highlights that hyperscale data centre operators — including Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta — are expected to maintain elevated capital expenditure levels over the coming years, with cumulative spending potentially reaching several hundred billion dollars by 2026. This investment cycle is expected to support key Nasdaq 100 constituents such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom.

JPMorgan has outlined upside scenarios for the S&P 500 in which the index could approach the 7,500 level in 2026, while Deutsche Bank has presented more optimistic scenarios pointing toward levels around 8,000 by end-2026, contingent on robust earnings growth and continued AI-driven investment.

Based on S&P 500 targets, the Nasdaq 100 could surpass 27,000 points in 2026, according to analysts.

4. Silver (XAG/USD)

Driven by supply shortages and a sharp compression in the gold–silver ratio, silver prices posted outsized gains in 2025, far outpacing gold.

The Silver Institute warns of a persistent structural supply deficit in the global silver market, driven by strong industrial demand, a recovery in investment demand, and slowing supply growth. It expects this supply-demand imbalance to persist — and potentially widen — in 2026, which would continue to provide supportive fundamentals for silver prices.

UBS raised its 2026 silver target to USD 58–60/oz, with potential to reach USD 65/oz. Bank of America also projects silver to hit USD 65/oz in 2026.

5. Ethereum (ETH/USD)

In 2025, Ethereum experienced greater volatility than Bitcoin, also ending the year nearly flat.

Looking into 2026, institutions are generally optimistic about Ethereum’s prospects. JPMorgan highlights the enormous potential of tokenization, which relies heavily on Ethereum’s blockchain infrastructure.

Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, believes the tokenization wave will reshape the next crypto supercycle. He forecasts a price of USD 20,000 for ETH in 2026, asserting that Ethereum bottomed in 2025 and is poised for a significant rally.

6. EUR/USD

In 2025, EUR/USD rose 13% — the largest annual gain in nearly eight years — benefiting from U.S. dollar depreciation.

For 2026, most institutions expect further upside for EUR/USD, supported by divergent monetary policies between the U.S. and Europe (Fed rate cuts vs. ECB holding rates steady).

JPMorgan and Nomura forecast EUR/USD to potentially reach 1.20 by 2026 year-end; Bank of America is more bullish, targeting 1.22.

However, Morgan Stanley cautions that EUR/USD could face downward pressure in the second half of 2026 as the U.S. economy outperforms Europe. It expects EUR/USD to first rise to 1.23, then retreat to 1.16 in H2 2026.

7. USD/JPY

In 2025, USD/JPY declined initially before rebounding, ending the year down approximately 1% overall.

Outlooks for 2026 are highly divergent: JPMorgan and Barclays are bullish, while Citigroup and Nomura are bearish.

JPMorgan argues that expectations for Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes are already priced in, and fiscal expansion in Japan may weigh on the yen. It forecasts USD/JPY to rise to 164 by the end of 2026.

Nomura, however, contends that narrowing interest rate differentials will reduce the appeal of yen carry trades. If U.S. macro indicators weaken, investors may unwind carry positions, triggering yen appreciation. It projects USD/JPY to fall to 140 before 2026 ends.

8. Crude Oil (USOIL)

In 2025, crude oil prices plunged nearly 20% as OPEC+ restored output and U.S. production rose.

Looking ahead, many institutions see downside risks skewed toward oversupply, particularly if OPEC+ output remains elevated and global demand growth moderates.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a bearish scenario in which WTI crude could average around USD 52 per barrel and Brent around USD 56 per barrel in 2026. JPMorgan has similarly highlighted downside scenarios, with WTI potentially averaging near USD 54 per barrel and Brent around USD 58 per barrel, contingent on sustained supply surpluses.