United States Dollar Index remains subdued near 101.50 amid Fed policy uncertainty
- US Dollar Index remained flat amid a rare level of uncertainty heading into a Fed decision.
- Traders expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this week, with possible hikes delayed to September.
- Donald Trump warned military strikes against Iran could resume if diplomatic negotiations collapse.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after three days of gains and trading around 101.50 during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The Greenback moves little amid market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in nearly a 38% chance of a rate hike in July, an unusually high level of uncertainty so close to a meeting. Citadel Securities expects the Fed to deliver a rate increase to solidify Chairman Kevin Warsh’s inflation-fighting credibility following his repeated promises to restore price stability. Looking further ahead, the probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike in September currently sits at approximately 81.4%.
President Donald Trump stated that the US is engaged in "good talks" with Iran to resolve the Middle East conflict. While Washington suspended its 13-night strike campaign over the weekend, leading to three consecutive days without attacks. Tehran’s foreign ministry countered that no direct negotiations with the US are taking place, noting its only active dialogue is with Oman regarding the future of the Strait. Even so, the diplomatic developments helped push oil prices down, easing broader inflation and monetary policy concerns.
Washington suspended its 13-night strike campaign over the weekend, leading to three consecutive days without attacks. Tehran’s foreign ministry countered that no direct negotiations with the US are taking place, noting its only active dialogue is with Oman regarding the future of the Strait.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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