Here's What SpaceX's Record Stock Market Debut Can Tell Us About OpenAI and Anthropic's Planned IPOs

Last Friday, Elon Musk's Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) made its historic entry into the public markets. As the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, SpaceX's debut provided a clear signal about how investors are prepared to value transformative companies in the current market.

From the scale of the offering, the strength of investor demand, and the immediate post-listing performance, abundant capital is seeking exposure to the companies that are redefining entire industries rather than merely competing within established incumbents.

This precedent may carry direct implications for OpenAI and Anthropic, two artificial intelligence (AI) developers that have recently filed confidential S-1s with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a filing companies make when they plan to go public.

Looking at the scale and momentum of SpaceX's IPO

SpaceX priced its shares at $135, raising a record $85.7 billion in what became the largest IPO of all time. The stock opened on the Nasdaq at about $150 and gained 17% on its first trading day -- briefly pushing the company's market capitalization above $2.1 trillion.

This outcome reflected an extraordinary level of oversubscription during the book-building process. Moreover, it also demonstrates that growth investors are willing to pay a premium for access to a business whose ecosystem spans reusable rocketry, global satellite broadband, and integrated artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

So far, the transition from private to public ownership has not produced the typical post-IPO digestion or sell-off volatility often seen with large technology listings. Instead, SpaceX shares have exhibited sustained upward momentum -- underscoring genuine conviction rather than speculative froth.

SpaceX's valuation was $800 billion in December after the company completed a secondary share purchase from insiders. Moreover, just days before SpaceX hit the public exchanges, the company's valuation soared to $1.5 trillion based on trading data from private market platform, Forge Global.

SpaceX's further valuation expansion in market cap to more than $2.5 trillion suggests that public market investors are prepared to support -- and exceed -- the levels previously established in private transactions.

Image source: Getty Images.

Capital is looking for new growth narratives

The enthusiastic reception of SpaceX could be an indication that public markets remain well supplied with deployable capital but asset managers have become increasingly selective about where they direct these funds. Institutional and retail investors alike have clearly shown an appetite for fresh opportunities that offer exposure to technologies capable of reshaping foundational aspects of the broader economy.

While the largest technology platforms -- such as the "Magnificent Seven" -- continue to attract steady interest, many portfolios are actively seeking diversification and rotating into the companies whose trajectories are less correlated with legacy names.

SpaceX satisfies this demand by presenting a multidecade growth arc rooted in capabilities that few other businesses can replicate at comparable scale. The strong performance of SpaceX stock could suggest that liquidity is not a constraint for investors.

Investors appear ready to support companies that combine ambitious engineering with large addressable markets -- even when these very enterprises command valuations that would have seemed unjustified only a few years ago. The current environment seems to favor companies whose progress is measured in fundamental breakthroughs rather than incremental product upgrade cycles.

What does the SpaceX IPO say about OpenAI and Anthropic's offerings?

SpaceX's journey from the private markets to the Nasdaq underscores that investors are becoming comfortable assigning and sustaining premium valuations to companies they view as once-in-a-generation. After building substantial value through successive funding rounds as a private company, SpaceX translated that growth into a public market cap that has not only held but so far expanded.

The same logic is applicable to OpenAI and Anthropic, both of which have already secured private valuations approaching $1 trillion through a series of large-scale funding rounds. Each company is developing frontier generative models and associated AI infrastructure whose long-term economic impact could be comparable in magnitude to the space and satellite revolutions SpaceX is leading. Because OpenAI and Anthropic represent technological frontiers that have not existed before, they command the same willingness among investors to pay up for the potential of outsized gains.

In my eyes, SpaceX sets a precedent that strong private-market valuations in new categories are not destined to compress upon listing. Instead, the private markets can actually serve as a floor from which further valuation expansion occurs when demand for exposure remains robust.

The combination of available capital, investor hunger for differentiated growth stories, and precedent from SpaceX's record IPO suggests the OpenAI and Anthropic listings will be met with significant interest rather than overwhelming skepticism. As a result, I think OpenAI and Anthropic are positioned to list on public exchanges with valuations that reflect their respective private-market achievements and likely exceed them.

Adam Spatacco has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.