Bitcoin Strongly Breaks $65,000, How This Week’s FOMC Decision Will Influence the Outlook?

TradingKey - Bitcoin prices surge past $65,000 as U.S. and Iran reach a new agreement, with the $70,000 mark in sight this week.

On June 15, Bitcoin ( BTC) continued its rebound, decisively breaking through $65,000. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin rose over 2% intraday, currently trading at $65,794, its highest level since June 4. However, how long will this rally last, and what is the target price? Bitcoin price chart, Source: TradingView

Last week, Bitcoin prices were capped by the $64,000 resistance level, fluctuating in a narrow range for several days until the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict broke the stalemate. According to Iranian media reports on June 15, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement formally confirming a memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. It is reported that representatives including the Iranian Foreign Minister and the Speaker of Parliament will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, while the U.S. will send Vice President Vance. This signals that the four-month conflict is nearing its end, bolstering Bitcoin's strength.

Currently, Bitcoin has cleared the recent resistance level of $64,000, flashing a bullish signal and potentially paving the way for a rally toward the $70,000 mark. However, a crucial factor remains this week: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which could pose a hurdle to Bitcoin's ascent.

On Wednesday, June 17 (ET), global financial markets will face the heavyweight FOMC interest rate decision. The latest economic projections and the interest rate dot plot will be released, marking the policy debut of the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh.

According to CME data, there is a 97.4% probability that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate within the 3.50% - 3.75% range. While a "no-cut" scenario is largely priced in, uncertainty surrounding the latest dot plot and economic forecasts could potentially heighten expectations for a rate cut by the end of the year.

If the dot plot shows that most officials believe inflation will come back under control in the second half of the year due to the Middle East ceasefire and falling oil prices—while maintaining a window for rate cuts in late 2026 or early 2027—Bitcoin would gain significant liquidity fuel, potentially challenging $80,000. Conversely, if the dot plot reveals higher rates for longer or hints at a possible hike by year-end, the newly rebounded crypto market could retest support at $60,000. However, judging by today’s broad rally in U.S. Treasuries, the U.S.-Iran agreement has already prompted traders to scale back bets on Fed hikes.

Caution is still warranted; although both sides have confirmed the memorandum of understanding, the official signing is scheduled for this Friday, June 19, and complications could arise before then. Furthermore, this is only a ceasefire agreement and does not equate to a final comprehensive peace treaty. If hostilities resume, expectations for a Fed rate cut would be undermined once again, while the likelihood of rate hikes would increase significantly, which would be very detrimental to Bitcoin.