SpaceX Stock Closed Up 19% in Its First Day Of Trading. Should Investors Buy, or Wait for the Hype to Cool?

The debut is done. After 24 years as a private company, SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is now a public stock, and a volatile one. Shares priced at $135, opened at $150, traded as high as about $177, and closed at about $161 as of this writing -- a gain of about 19% on the day, with the stock continuing to climb in after-hours trading.

That move values the rocket and satellite company at roughly $2.1 trillion, up from the $1.77 trillion the IPO price implied. It makes SpaceX one of the most valuable companies in the U.S. on day one, ahead of names like Meta Platforms and founder Elon Musk's own Tesla.

So the interesting question is no longer whether the IPO would succeed. It clearly did. The question for anyone watching the ticker now is whether buying after a 19% pop is a disciplined move or a foolish chase.

Here's a closer look at both sides.

Image source: Getty Images.

The bull case

Start with Starlink, the satellite internet business that does most of the heavy lifting. SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO) disclosures show the connectivity segment, primarily driven by Starlink, generated about $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, about 61% of the company's total, and it is the only segment producing consistent profits -- roughly $4.4 billion in operating income, or an operating margin of about 39%.

And the subscriber growth has been steep. Starlink ended 2023 with about 2.3 million subscribers, a figure that climbed to about 8.9 million by the end of 2025 and surpassed 10 million by the first quarter of 2026. The company also has pricing levers it has barely started to pull. After letting average revenue per subscriber fall about 18% to roughly $81 a month between 2023 and 2025 to win volume, SpaceX raised some Starlink prices by up to $10 a month in May.

Then there's the launch business, where SpaceX is dominant in a way few companies are dominant in anything. The company said its rockets accounted for more than four-fifths of all mass launched into orbit in 2025. That is the kind of position that is extraordinarily hard for a competitor to replicate, and it underpins the scarcity argument that helped drive demand for the shares.

There is also the simple fact that there is no other public stock quite like this one. Investors who want exposure to commercial space, satellite broadband, and Musk's broader ambitions now have a single way to get it. That uniqueness arguably commands a premium on its own.

The risks a day-one buyer takes on

But a great business and a great stock are not the same thing, and the gap between the two has rarely looked wider than it does here.

Start with valuation. At about $2.1 trillion, SpaceX trades at well over 100 times its 2025 revenue. For perspective, that is a multiple usually reserved for far smaller companies in the earliest innings of growth, not one of the largest companies in the country. And SpaceX isn't profitable on a consolidated basis. After folding in Musk's AI venture xAI, which it acquired in February 2026, the company posted a net loss of about $4.9 billion in 2025 and a loss of about $4.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026 alone. The AI segment is consuming Starlink's profits and then some.

And a price like this leaves essentially no room for error. It assumes Starlink keeps compounding, the launch business stays unrivaled, and the unprofitable AI unit eventually turns into something that justifies the spending.

There is also the matter of supply. SpaceX structured its lockup unusually, letting some shareholders begin selling portions of their holdings within weeks of the IPO rather than waiting the typical 180 days. Early shareholders can sell 20% of their shares around the company's first quarterly report covering the second quarter, with additional tranches unlocking later in the year. That means a meaningful wave of shareholder selling could arrive well before year-end, which could pressure the stock.

And then there's the volatility a newly public megacap brings. Shares swung from up 11% to up more than 30% and back within a single session. The business is also closely tied to one founder who runs several other companies.

Buy now or wait?

So, post IPO, is SpaceX stock a buy?

I don't think this is the moment to chase it. The business is remarkable, and Starlink alone may justify a massive valuation someday. But the current price already assumes a lot goes right, and the unusual lockup structure, combined with the stock's borderline egregious valuation, could create better entry points down the road.

I'd rather be patient here than chase post-IPO gains.

Daniel Sparks has clients with positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.