Forecasting the upcoming week: Fed, BoJ, BoE and RBA decisions take center stage
The US Dollar Index (DXY) lost ground during the week, down 027% to trade near the 99.80 level as investors prepared for a heavy central bank calendar.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.14% | 0.11% | 0.00% | 0.07% | 0.26% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.01% | 0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.07% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.05% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.11% | -0.06% | -0.17% | -0.10% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.06% | -0.11% | -0.05% | 0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.00% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 0.17% | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.21% | |
| NZD | -0.07% | 0.01% | -0.00% | 0.10% | 0.05% | -0.06% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.26% | -0.18% | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.13% | -0.21% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD remained pressured near the 1.1570 level. In the Eurozone, investors will monitor Industrial Production, final HICP inflation, and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for fresh clues on growth and price pressures. Germany will be in focus with the ZEW Survey, which will compile readings on current conditions and economic sentiment.
GBP/USD is trading on the back foot near the 1.3410 level. The pair will be driven by a busy United Kingdom (UK) calendar and the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, but the vote split will be key for the Pound Sterling.
UK CPI, PPI, wage growth, employment data, jobless claims, consumer confidence, and Retail Sales will also be released, providing markets with a broader picture of inflation, labor market conditions, and consumer demand.
USD/JPY challenged the 160.20 level during the week, keeping intervention risks in focus ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision. The BoJ is expected to deliver a key policy update, while traders will also monitor the press conference, Japan trade data, National CPI, and the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for signals on the next policy steps.
AUD/USD is trading neutral near the 0.7050 level and will now focus on the RBA interest rate decision, policy statement, and press conference. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged, but its language on inflation and future policy could drive the Australian Dollar.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades near the $84.30 per barrel, supported during the week as geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks in focus. Looking ahead, crude prices could remain sensitive to any fresh headlines on the potential Iran deal, shipping activity through the Strait, and broader risk sentiment.
Gold stayed near the $4,215, supported by safe-haven demand as investors monitored Middle East tensions and prepared for next week’s Fed decision. The precious metal could remain volatile, with a hawkish Fed tone likely to pressure bullion, while geopolitical uncertainty may continue to limit the downside.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, June 15:
- ECB’s Nagel
- ECB President Lagarde
- ECB’s Cipollone
Tuesday, June 16:
- RBA Press Conference
- BoJ Press Conference
- ECB’s Lane
- ECB’s Sleijpen
Wednesday, June 17:
- ECB’s Cipollone
- ECB’s Sleijpen
- FOMC Press Conference
Thursday, June 18:
- ECB’s Nagel
- ECB’s Elderson
- ECB’s Cipollone
- ECB’s Lane
Friday, June 19:
- ECB’s Lane
- ECB’s Cipollone
- ECB’s Elderson
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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