SpaceX’s stock soared upon its market debut.
But that rally could sputter out once the euphoria fades.
SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, went public on June 12. It priced its shares at $135, started trading at $150, and is now trading around $170 as of this writing. It opened with a market cap of $1.77 trillion, making it the biggest IPO in history.
SpaceX floated less than 5% of its shares in that offering, but allocated up to 30% to retail investors rather than institutions. That decision opened up SpaceX to a much larger cohort of smaller investors. Let's see what a $1000 investment might have gotten you in SpaceX's IPO -- and how much it might be worth in a few years.
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All brokerages that offered SpaceX required investors to buy at least one full share at $135. Some of those brokerages also had minimum account balance requirements. Fidelity only offered the IPO to accounts with more than $2,000 in assets, while Schwab set the bar even higher at $100,000. E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, Robinhood, and SoFi -- which didn't have any minimum account balance requirements -- only required investors to have enough funds to cover their orders.
A $1,000 investment would only have gotten you seven shares of SpaceX at its IPO price and six shares at its opening price. Some bullish investors might hope their investment doubles or triples this year, but I believe it will quickly peak and stumble for three reasons.
First, it was already valued at 95 times its 2025 sales upon its market debut. Its initially rally will likely push its price-to-sales ratio above 100. That's an unsustainable valuation, even for a company that grew its revenue by 33% in 2025. Second, it's unprofitable because the losses from its space and AI divisions are wiping out Starlink's profits. That pressure will worsen as it ramps up its AI infrastructure investments. Lastly, SpaceX's low float indicates it's eager to raise capital but isn't willing to give its investors a seat at the table. With Elon Musk maintaining an 82% voting stake after its IPO, it will remain immune to any investor pressure.
SpaceX might eventually grow into its sky-high valuations, but it's not for me. If you invest $1,000 in this stock today, your investment could initially blossom as a "fear of missing out" takes over, but it will shrivel as that euphoria fades. Therefore, I expect the value of your investment to shrink to a few hundred dollars over the next year before stabilizing.
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Charles Schwab is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Charles Schwab and recommends the following options: short June 2026 $97.50 calls on Charles Schwab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.