Forex Today: Attention is back to the real economy

Source Fxstreet

The US Dollar continued its ascent, reaching fresh 2024 highs, even as the Trump-led rally showed signs of slowing and US yields dipped slightly ahead of a busy economic calendar on Friday.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, November 15:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) printed a new 2024 peak north of 107.00 despite declining US yields across the curve. Retail Sales will be at the centre of the debate across the pond, seconded by the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Export and Import Prices, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, and Business Inventories.

EUR/USD broke below the 1.0500 support to hit new 2024 lows amidst the incessant move higher in the Greenback. Germany’s Wholesale Prices are due along with speeches by the ECB’s McCaul, Lane, and Cipollone.

GBP/USD broke below the 1.2700 support to reach new lows amid further gains in the Greenback. The advanced Q3 GDP Growth Rate figures takes centre stage on the UK docket, followed by Business Investment, Goods Trade Balance, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, the final Q2 Labour Productivity index, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.

USD/JPY climbed past the 156.00 hurdle for the first time since mid-July on the back of further gains in the US Dollar. Key data releases in Japan will include flash Q3 GDP Growth Rate, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, and the Tertiary Industry Index.

Extra strength in the Greenback and the inconclusive price action in the commodity complex dragged AUD/USD to new lows near 0.6450. The RBA’s Jones will be the sole event Down Under at the end of the week.

WTI prices added to Wednesday’s marginal gains and shifted their focus to the key $70.00 mark on the back of a positive EIA’s weekly report.

Prices of Gold advanced marginally and regained the $2,570 region after bottoming out in new lows near $2,535 earlier in the day. Silver prices bounced off the sub-$30.00 zone per ounce, making a decent U-turn and eventually ending the day with marked gains.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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The Fed will sit still on October 28 — but 100 of 100 economists now expect a December hikeA Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 22, Thu
A Reuters poll run October 16-20 found 94 of 100 economists expecting the Fed to hold at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 — and all 100 expecting a hike in December, against less than half a month earlier. The market is close to the same price, with CME FedWatch at roughly 17% for October and 82.8% for December. With the Fed in blackout since October 17, here are the five dates that decide the rest of the year, what each one is priced for, and the two directions each can take.
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Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 26, Mon
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
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Anthropic files for a $2 trillion IPO — the $80.7 billion loss is the decoy, the $450 billion compute bill is the riskAnthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
Author  Irene Q.
Oct 27, Tue
Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 on October 26, revealing $16.29 billion of first-half revenue (+1,304% year over year) and a $80.7 billion net loss — of which $72.4 billion is a non-cash convertible-note charge. The real number is the $450 billion of signed, mostly non-cancelable compute commitments. Here is what the filing says, why NVDA, ARM and MU are the tradeable read-through, and the conditions that decide whether the AI trade passes its first public valuation test.
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Fed October Rate Decision Preview: Rate Hike Pause Has Become Consensus, How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold React?The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
Author  TradingKey
Oct 27, Tue
The Federal Reserve will announce its October interest rate decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on October 28, and Fed Chair Warsh will hold a press conference at 14:30. Markets currently wide
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Brent's $115 front month sits $4.6 above January — the $14 spread to WTI is the supply-risk premiumDecember Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
Author  Irene Q.
17 hours ago
December Brent trades at $115.29 while January is $110.71, a $4.58 backwardation. The December Brent-WTI spread is $14.2, versus a $3-5 normal. That gap, not the headline, is where the Middle East supply risk is priced. Here is what the curve says, why the December contract's expiry on October 30 will mechanically cut the headline by $4.6, and the 108.81 neckline that decides the next move.
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