Fed’s Kevin Warsh Killed the Rate Cut: Hike Odds Now Sit at 66%

Kevin Warsh chaired his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16, and the Fed held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly as markets expected. However, the dot plot dropped its last remaining projection for a rate cut in 2026, and futures traders now price a 66% chance of at least one hike before the year ends.

The rate hold had a 97% probability priced in before the meeting opened, so the decision itself carried no surprise. The dot plot and Warsh’s debut press conference shifted the outlook significantly.

The Dot Plot Just Changed Everything

The dot plot is the Fed’s quarterly map of where FOMC participants expect interest rates to go. Every 2026 meeting prior to June still contained at least one projected cut for the year.

The June edition, produced without Warsh’s participation, removed that last projection entirely. Raymond James analysts had anticipated that at least three voting members would project a hike before December, and the final dot plot confirmed the shift.

The formal end of the easing cycle carries weight beyond this single meeting. Markets had spent the first half of 2026 pricing in cheaper money ahead. That assumption is now gone.

Why the Press Conference Mattered

Warsh has long questioned the dot plot as a communication tool, and he signaled before taking the role that he wants a leaner Fed, one that offers less forward guidance than markets grew accustomed to under Jerome Powell.

Warsh appears to have followed through. Most Wall Street analysts, including economists at Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, expected him to withhold his dot entirely, making him the first Fed chair in 14 years not to participate in the SEP. A chair who won’t put a number down is telling markets not to expect the kind of forward guidance they got used to under Powell

His debut press conference gave the first real read on what a leaner Fed looks like: tighter messaging, inflation-first framing, and no commitment to when cuts might return.

What the Rate Hike Odds Mean for Crypto

The 66% hike probability is one of the sharpest reversals in market pricing this year. At the start of 2026, investors priced in one to two rate cuts by December. Treasury yields already reflect the change, with the 10-year benchmark near 4.47% and the 30-year approaching 4.97%.

For crypto, higher borrowing costs are a headwind. Bitcoin and the broader market track global liquidity expectations closely, and the prospect of a hike extending into late 2026 tightens those conditions further. Hike odds had already climbed before the meeting on strong jobs data, and the ECB moving in parallel toward tightening adds another layer of pressure on risk assets globally.

The first Warsh meeting is done. It delivered one message: this Fed’s priority is inflation, and the market’s assumption that cheap money returns in 2026 just ran out of road.