Dow Jones futures tick higher as prospects for Fed rate cut strengthen
- Dow Jones futures climb as softer jobs data strengthen expectations for a Fed rate cut in September.
- CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing of 90% of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September, following August jobs data.
- Traders await upcoming inflation reports to gain fresh cues on Fed rate outlook.
Dow Jones futures rise 0.15% to trade above 45,500 during European hours on Monday, ahead of the United States (US) market open. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures gain 0.18% near 6,500, while Nasdaq 100 futures climb 0.31% to around 23,750.
US stock futures received support from the firming likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, after disappointing labor market data for August. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in 90% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 86% a week ago, with rising bets on a potential 50 bps reduction this month.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released, on Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which showed 22,000 new jobs added in August, falling short of the market expectations of 75,000. This figure followed the 79,000 increase (revised from 73,000) recorded in July. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.3% August, as expected, against the 4.2% prior.
On Friday’s regular US session, US stocks closed lower as the weaker jobs data raised concerns about a slowing economy in the United States. The Dow Jones dropped 0.48%, the S&P 500 ended 0.32% lower, and the Nasdaq 100 inched lower by 0.03%.
Traders will likely observe upcoming inflation data for August, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. These reports could impact the near-term path for the Fed's interest rate.
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
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