Micron's Stock Is Up Over 270% This Year. Here's How It Can Still Double in 2026.

Micron (NASDAQ: MU) investors have had a banner year, with the stock rising over 270% so far. If you invested in a broad market index fund, a return like that can take well over a decade to achieve. This skyrocketing surge speaks to the results investors can obtain by picking individual stocks, but what's in the past is in the past. What really matters is what's coming.

Despite Micron's strong rise already in 2026, there is a scenario where the stock doubles by the end of the year. That would clearly make it a buy now, but how is a return like that possible to achieve?

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A memory shortage is driving Micron's stock higher

Data centers need a large amount of memory to function. There are two primary types of memory, and each gets used differently. DRAM memory is mostly deployed in computing chips, which are seeing a spike in demand as more and more computing power is deployed for artificial intelligence (AI) use. Micron also makes NAND memory, which primarily gets used in data storage like solid-state drives (SSDs). Both of these products are in short supply, which is causing prices to soar. Micron is cashing in on this shortage, but also working to alleviate it at the same time.

By mid-2027, Micron's new Idaho facility will be up and running, and several other production sites are under construction now. At the same time, investors are getting estimates for 2027 capital expenditures even greater than 2026's levels. In fact, Nvidia believes its global data center capital expenditures could reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion annually by 2030.

Compared to the estimated $650 billion that AI hyperscalers are expected to spend this year, that growth presents some major supply challenges and could extend the memory chip shortage for several years, allowing Micron's stock to be an excellent long-term investment.

How Micron could double from here

But in 2026, Micron's stock isn't all that expensive at 18 times forward earnings. Its peer, Sandisk (NASDAQ: SNDK), has already risen to about 28 times forward earnings. That could easily unlock another 50% growth just based on valuation alone. However, if investors start to get excited about 2027 data center demand and Micron's revenue growth exceeds expectations (right now, the analyst consensus projects 263% growth for its next quarter and 250% after that), Micron's stock could easily rise the other 50% based on beating estimates.

Wall Street only forecasts 60% growth for fiscal year 2027 (ending August 2027), and if that number moves to over 100% (which is entirely possible based on major 2027 demand), I wouldn't be surprised to see the market bid up the stock as a result.

While Micron could still double this year, I think there's a compelling case for the stock even if it falls short of that goal.

Keithen Drury has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.