Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin is not a safe haven against geopolitical tensions, says Standard Chartered

Source Cryptopolitan

Bitcoin isn’t going to save us from geopolitical uncertainties. That’s what Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, believes.

With tensions in the Middle East rising, he expects Bitcoin to fall way below $60,000 before the weekend. But he also believes this could be a prime buying opportunity.

Kendrick points out the connection between geopolitical issues and self-proclaimed pro-crypto Donald Trump’s chances.

This week, his odds of winning the November elections have increased by about 1%, while Kamala Harris’s chances dropped by the same. Trump now sits at 50%, slightly ahead of Harris, who has 49%.

According to Kendrick, there’s a “circularity” in how these tensions affect Bitcoin. When geopolitical risks like the Middle East flare up, Bitcoin drops.

But, oddly enough, these same risks seem to favor Trump’s chances. A Trump victory is considered bullish for Bitcoin, while a Harris win will have the opposite effect.

Trump’s crypto play could change Bitcoin’s fate

Trump’s reappearance on the political stage comes with a twist for the crypto community as he did a complete 180 on the matter.

Analysts expect that a Trump administration would speed up pro-crypto policies, which could send prices flying in the months following the election.

Regulatory advancements could slow down under a Harris administration, ruining market sentiment. But Kendrick believes investors will eventually “buy the dip” when they realize that progress on regulation is inevitable, just delayed.

Despite it all, the market has been seeing a surge in Bitcoin call option positions. Open interest for call options expiring on December 27 with a strike price of $80,000 surged by 1,300 Bitcoin in just two days.

Bitcoin is no gold

While Bitcoin has long been pitched as “digital gold,” Kendrick believes it’s not the safe haven some make it out to be. He said:

“Gold is a geopolitical hedge. Bitcoin is a hedge against traditional finance issues like bank collapses or U.S. Treasury problems.”

When looking at Bitcoin’s price performance from past market cycles, Kendrick says there’s a weird consistency. Despite drastically different conditions, Bitcoin’s behavior is oddly similar across these cycles.

Analysts debate why this happens, but the fact remains that BTC tends to follow similar patterns, making its dynamics predictable to some extent.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Bitcoin supply held by long-term investors has hit its highest level since mid-2021.

But many of these holders are sitting on unrealized losses. Coins bought near Bitcoin’s all-time high of $73,000 have now crossed the 155-day threshold and are being held at a loss.

Around 47.4% of all Bitcoin in loss right now is held by long-term holders. But the losses aren’t severe enough to cause panic.

Short-term holders, on the other hand, are doing a bit better. Over the past few weeks, short-term holders have seen a slight improvement in profitability.

The percentage of short-term supply in profit has risen to over 62%. Also, profit-taking volumes are 14.17 times higher than loss-taking, showing that investors are cashing out when they can.

This aligns with the idea that while short-term holders are quick to react to market conditions, they’re starting to see better days ahead.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

Fed hike odds near 90% into Wednesday's decision — how to trade the dollar, gold and the S&P 500 A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Author Suzie

Sep 14, Mon

A 0.3% monthly core CPI print has lifted the market-implied probability of a 25bp Fed hike on 16 September to roughly 86.5% ~ 90%, which would be the first increase since July 2023. Here is the decision timeline, the pricing versus the forecasts, both scenarios, and the key levels for the dollar, gold and the S&P 500.

Gold falls below $4,300 as higher US yields bolster Fed rate hike bets Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week.

Author FXStreet

Yesterday 01: 23

Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,295 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as rising bond yields and surging energy prices strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates this week.

【Daily Brief】10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 5%, S&P 500 slips to 7,602 and the dollar firms at 99.3 as the Fed's decision eve begins The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.

Author Irene Q.

Yesterday 08: 16

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.014% on Monday — its first print above 5% since October 2023 — while the S&P 500 closed 0.48% lower at 7,619.98 and the dollar index firmed to 99.3. Here is the full market wrap ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, the dot plot and the August retail sales report, plus today's CLARITY Act Senate vote.

Silver breaks $64 as precious metals rebound — can gold hold the $4,280 line into the Fed decision?Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.

Author Suzie

5 hours ago

Silver has climbed back above $64 an ounce for the first time this week, leading a broad rebound across precious metals hours before the Federal Reserve delivers what is expected to be its first rate hike since 2023. Spot silver was last at $64.64, up 1.49% on the day, while gold reclaimed $4,300 and platinum and palladium both advanced. The question now is whether the bounce is a genuine turn — or a pause before the Fed's dot plot decides the next move.

Bitcoin falls below $75,000 as the CLARITY Act fails in the Senate — what the vote means for crypto The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.

Author Suzie

5 hours ago

The US Senate blocked the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act in a 49-50 procedural vote, sending Bitcoin briefly below $75,000 — its biggest one-day drop since June. Ethereum fell more than 8%, Coinbase slid 10% and $75 billion of crypto market value evaporated. Here is what the vote was, why it failed, and the levels that matter now.

Popular Symbols