What SpaceX Downplays in Its $1.77 Trillion IPO Filing

SpaceX is set to price the largest IPO in history next week, at a valuation near $1.77 trillion. Its own filings show a company that was profitable until the xAI merger turned it into a loss-making company.

The roadshow leans on artificial intelligence. The financial statements tell a more complicated story about what investors are actually buying.

The Valuation Rests on a Market that Barely Exists Yet

At $135 per share, the offering values SpaceX at roughly 94 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. Research firm Morningstar has called that close to twice fair value.

The filing pins most of the case on a $28.5 trillion total addressable market (TAM). AI accounts for $26.5 trillion of that figure, including $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.

SpaceX describes the opportunity in unusually bold terms.

“We believe we have identified the largest actionable TAM in human history.”

What the document does not detail is how the company captures that market against Google, OpenAI, and Microsoft. Some analysts argue SpaceX is worth far less on current earnings.

The xAI Merger Flipped Profit into Deepening Losses

In 2024, before the deal, SpaceX earned $791 million in net income. After the all-stock xAI merger closed in February, the 2025 result swung to a $4.94 billion net loss.

The company then posted a $4.28 billion first quarter loss in 2026. Its accumulated deficit has reached $41.3 billion, and the AI unit alone lost $6.36 billion from operations last year.

Profitable launch services and Starlink are funding that buildout. The recent Anthropic compute deal and the new Google contract may ease the strain, though either party can cancel both on 90 days’ notice.

Supporters counter that Starlink remains highly profitable on its own and that the compute contracts add tens of billions in visible revenue.

Google just signed a $920 million per month compute agreement with SpaceX — 110,000 NVIDIA GPUs, running through June 2029. Combined with Anthropic’s $1.25 billion per month deal, SpaceX is now collecting $2.17 billion every single month from two of the most powerful AI companies… pic.twitter.com/QPhJyxi8k7

— Mars University (@MarsUniversityX) June 5, 2026

They also point to the reusable-rocket record as evidence Musk delivers on hard targets.

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Strong Headline Numbers Hide Softer Trends

Starlink looks like the safest part of the story. Subscribers more than doubled to 10.3 million in the year to March 2026.

Starlink just crossed 10 million subscribers.65% of every active satellite in orbit. Doubling every single year.A kid in a fishing village getting his first internet connection. A hospital in rural Kenya running telemedicine for the first time.155 countries. And this is… pic.twitter.com/GZO8MUwzV6

— Kyle Chassé 🐸 (@Kylechasse) June 1, 2026

Per-user economics moved the other way. Average revenue per user fell about 23%, from $99 a month in 2023 to $66, as Starlink expanded into cheaper markets.

Governance adds another wrinkle. Musk holds about 42% of the equity but 85.1% of the voting power, and SpaceX will claim controlled-company status after listing.

The offering also reserves up to 30% for retail buyers, roughly triple a typical mega-IPO. That structure has raised investor questions before IPO about who absorbs shares from early backers.

None of this is hidden. The risks sit in the filing, alongside profitability rules that have already prompted index exclusion concerns.

The open question is whether $1.77 trillion is the right price for a company still proving its biggest segment.