Mitrade Insights is dedicated to providing investors with rich, timely and most valuable financial information to help investors grasp the market situation and find timely trading opportunities.

2021

Best News & Analysis Provider

FxDailyInfo

2022

Best Forex Educational Resources Global

International Business Magazine

Insights

News

Cryptocurrencies

Binance Research Found One Number That Separates Strong Bitcoin Rallies From Weak Ones

Source Beincrypto

Bitcoin’s (BTC) September 8 golden cross came after 293 days below its 200-day average in the prior year. Binance Research says the depth of such a reset may help identify stronger recoveries.

The firm’s latest weekly report compared the setup with 12 earlier crosses. Binance’s chart splits those episodes into “shallow reset” and “deep freeze” groups.

What 12 Earlier Crosses Say About 293 Days Below Trend

A golden cross forms when the 50-day moving average climbs above the 200-day average. Binance’s study sorted past crosses by how many days BTC closed below its 200-day average in the preceding year.

The 6 crosses after at least 150 such days saw peak gains of roughly 100% to 600% within a year. By contrast, crosses after shallower resets varied more, with 4 of 6 peaking below 100%.

Bitcoin Golden Cross Peak Gains Versus Days Below 200-Day Average. Source: Binance Research

Longer resets did not scale neatly into bigger gains on Binance’s chart, however. The strongest runs, in February and May 2020, followed just over 150 days below the trend.

The closest match on that measure came in October 2015, after roughly 297 days below the average. That cross peaked near 150% within a year.

A second long-term signal appeared on September 20, when BTC posted an $81,159 weekly close. That marked its first close above the 50-week average since November 9, 2025.

Small Samples and a 5% Treasury Yield Temper the Signal

Binance flagged clear limits on its own finding. The figures reflect peak gains within the following year, rather than returns from holding BTC for 12 months. The firm added that the small, overlapping sample limits how much the history can predict.

Current conditions pose a separate test, because the same report ties Bitcoin’s recent pullback to rising bond yields. Brent crude topped $103, business activity data hit a 62-month high, and a Treasury auction drew weak demand.

Those moves lifted the US 10-year yield to 5.17% by September 25, its highest level since 2007. They also pushed October rate hike odds toward 70%, according to Binance.

As a result, BTC slipped from its recent high above $86,000. It traded at $83,175 at press time, per BeInCrypto Markets data.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

Spot demand has held up through the bond selloff, however, which gives the recovery some support. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drew $998.95 million on September 21, their largest daily inflow of 2026.

For Binance, stronger confirmation would come if BTC holds above its 50-week average through upcoming inflation and jobs data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and payrolls, both due this week, will test that level.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recommended Articles

October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changed Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 23, Wed

Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.

Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decision The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.

Author Mitrade

Sep 28, Mon

The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.

Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth trading Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.

Author Irene Q.

Sep 29, Tue

Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.

【Daily Brief】The dollar ground higher for six days — and the AUD fell 2% in the very week the RBA hiked to a 15-year high The dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.

Author Irene Q.

18 hours ago

The dollar index held above 101 while the Australian dollar slid to a two-month low of 0.6976, a 2.02% six-session loss, even though the RBA raised rates to 4.60% and Australian CPI printed 4.0%. The yen is the only major currency gaining, ahead of Japan's monthly intervention tally at 7pm JST.

【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonight The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.

Author Suzie

17 hours ago

The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.

Popular Symbols