Bitcoin Builds a Floor Near $60,000, but On-Chain Data Says the Bear Isn’t Over

Bitcoin (BTC) is carving out a possible floor near $60,000 as spot buyers step back in, yet on-chain valuation and profitability data confirm the market remains firmly in bear territory.

The recovery from the early June low has eased pressure on recent buyers without resolving it. Several indicators now point toward stabilization rather than a confirmed bottom.

BTC trades around $64,171, down 1% over the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization near $1.29 trillion.

Realized Losses Still Dominate Bitcoin Flows

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio measures the dollar value of coins moving in profit against those moving at a loss. Readings below 1 show that loss realization is the prevailing force.

The 30-day average sits at 0.53, while the 90-day average holds at 1.10. That split confirms loss-taking has outpaced profit-taking across most of the past month.

Valuation tells the same story. Glassnode places the True Market Mean at $77,200, roughly 15% above spot, so the on-chain regime stays bearish. Short-Term Holder MVRV has recovered to 0.90 but remains under the 1.0 breakeven line.

A sustained move in both averages toward 2 would be the first real signal that the bias is turning.

Spot Order Books Build a Bitcoin Floor Near $60K

The flow data leans bearish, yet spot liquidity has shifted in the opposite direction. That divergence is where the repair thesis begins.

Binance Spot Orderbook Depth Imbalance has moved decisively in favor of bids. Buy-side liquidity now outweighs resting sell orders by the widest margin in recent months.

This suggests traders are positioning to absorb supply at lower prices rather than sell into rallies. Passive bids near the $60,000 region appear to be defending current support.

Open interest also compressed off its late-May peak, while funding cooled toward neutral. The deleveraging points to a more patient buyer base instead of crowded leverage.

Macro Index Flags Rare Deep Value for Bitcoin

A longer-term gauge adds weight to the stabilization case. The Capriole Macro Index Oscillator reads -2.03, one of the deepest prints in its history.

Analyst Charles Edwards notes prior visits to these depths were brief. They lasted about four months in late 2018 and two months in mid-2022. Both periods preceded major cycle recoveries.

“In the past 10 years Bitcoin has only spent 6 months at these levels of deep value (5% of time). That should be a great long-term opportunity… If you believe these will be solved, you probably love Bitcoin here.”

He balances the call with two caveats absent in earlier cycles. Edwards points to digital-asset-treasury risks and the looming quantum threat as open questions. That tension keeps the deep-value read constructive rather than a confirmed bottom.

Bitcoin Floor: Price Hinges on the $64K to $66K Zone

Price action remains neutral on the daily chart. Bitcoin broke down from a parallel ascending channel and reached its $59,000 to $60,000 target quickly.

That drop carried a sharp volume spike and an extreme volatility reading, confirming the flush rather than a slow bleed. The bounce since then has lifted the price into the $64,000 to $66,000 pivot.

This zone is the decisive level for the next move. A reclaim opens a path toward the lower channel band near the $74,000 to $76,000 resistance.

A rejection here would likely trap Bitcoin in a range between $60,000 and $65,000. The $59,000 to $60,000 floor is the support that must hold, while the $74,000 to $76,000 caps any recovery attempt.

Whether the patient’s bid can outlast the weak profitability backdrop is the question that decides the next leg.