IEA forecasts 4.3 million bpd drop in global Oil supply
The International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global Oil supply and demand forecasts for 2026 amid shipping disruptions in the Middle East.
In its August Oil Market Report, the agency said, “With an agreement enabling the reopening of Hormuz and unhindered transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait still elusive, we have again lowered supply estimates for the rest of the year.”
Global Oil supply is now expected to fall by an average of 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 to around 102 million bpd. The agency, however, expects supply to rebound by 8.3 million bpd next year to 110.3 million bpd.
World Oil demand is forecast to decline by 1.6 million bpd in 2026, a 510,000 bpd larger drop than estimated in last month’s report. The agency noted that “elevated fuel prices are putting further downward pressure on oil use.”
Demand is expected to contract by 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter and 2.8 million bpd in the third quarter before returning to growth of 580,000 bpd in the final quarter.
“Although the market is projected to return to surplus towards the end of this year, risks remain substantial and the urgency of reopening the Strait has increased, as previously available inventory buffers are rapidly depleting,” the IEA said.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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