EUR: The French government has fallen – ING

The French government suddenly leaves the scene fueling the political crisis yet again, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

French politics to keep euro subdued

“Weak business investment means that France will only grow by 0.6% next year. Add in Germany contracting at 0.2% next year and eurozone GDP for the year comes in at just 0.7% – thanks to southern Europe! We see the ECB cutting rates to 1.75% next year. This should keep short-dated EUR:USD rate spreads near 200bp in favour of the dollar all year and, as Barry Eichengreen says, bring EUR/USD close to parity.”

“In terms of eurozone data today, we should see a downward correction in eurozone retail sales. We are still minded that short-term resistance at 1.0550 may be the extent of the EUR/USD recovery and see a case that EUR/USD hovers near 1.0500 over the coming days – given there seems to be more than $5bn of 1.0500 FX option strikes at that level expiring over the coming week.”