USD/CHF extends the rally above 0.8800, US CPI data looms
- USD/CHF extends its upside to near 0.8830 in Wednesday’s early European session.
- The US October CPI inflation data will take center stage on Wednesday.
- The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policy and geopolitical risks might cap the pair’s upside.
The USD/CHF pair trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day around 0.8830 during the early European session on Wednesday. The rally in the US Dollar (USD) due to the Trump trades provides some support to the pair.
The Trump trades have underpinned the Greenback and US Treasury bond yields as markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to slow the pace of future rate reduction. The markets have priced in nearly 62.4% of the 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the December meeting, down from 75% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Market players will keep an eye on the key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for October, which is due later on Wednesday. The headline CPI is estimated to rise 2.6% YoY in October, faster than the previous reading of a 2.4% increase. The core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% YoY in October. Meanwhile, the monthly CPI and the core CPI are expected to show an increase of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively.
A downside surprise in the US annual CPI inflation might diminish the expectations of a December Fed rate cut and could exert some selling pressure on the USD. On the other hand, the markets could push back against expectations for a rate cut in December on hotter-than-expected CPI readings, lifting the Greenback.
On the other hand, the safe-haven flows could boost the Swiss Franc (CHF) and might cap the upside for the pair. Traders will monitor the development surrounding increased uncertainty about the impact of likely tariffs in the upcoming Trump administration and the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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