GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Bright UK data helps the Pound to extend its recovery

Source Fxstreet
  • GBP/JPY returns to 208.00 after bouncing from YTD lows at 206.89 earlier in the day.
  • The upwardly revised UK GDP and the narrowing Current Account deficit have provided additional support to the Pound.
  • In Japan, weak Retail Trade and Industrial Production data undermined confidence on the Yen.


The British Pound (GBP) is bouncing strongly against the Japanese Yen (JPY) in Wednesday’s early London session, supported by the upward revision of the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a positive surprise in the Current Account. The GBP/JPY has regained most of the ground lost during the early Asian session, trading at 208.00 at the time of writing, after hitting a fresh year-to-date (YTD) low at 206.89.

The UK economy grew at a 0.5% pace in the second quarter, instead of the 0.4% previously estimated, according to final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures released earlier in the day. Likewise, the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) reading has been revised up to  1.4% from the 1.2% preliminary reading. 

Beyond that, UK Current Account data released at the same time showed that the deficit narrowed unexpectedly to GBP 19.932 billion in Q2 from a downwardly revised GBP 21.12 billion in Q1, against market expectations of a widening gap of GBP 25.6 billion.

Data from Japan has failed to support the Yen on Wednesday. Retail Trade contracted 1.2% in August, after growing 2.1% in July. Industrial Production also disappointed as preliminary data showed a 4.8% decline in August, against the 1.7% growth anticipated by the market consensus and following a 0.5% increase in July,

Technical Analysis: Bulls are likely to be challenged at the 208.30 area

Chart Analysis GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY has bounced up to 207.90, but the near-term bias remains bearish, with price action holding below a previous trendline support, which will likely act as resistance now. Momentum indicators on 4-hour charts remain within negative territory, with the Relative Strength Index (14) below 40, despite the recent rebound, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slightly negative, which suggests that the recovery is still frail.

Bulls are facing a cluster of resistances in the 208.30 area, where the mentioned trendline meets the intra-day high. A confirmation above here would boost confidence for bulls and expose the September 27 and 28 highs in the 209.00 area. Further up, the September 22 and 24 highs, near 210.15 seem out of reach for the coming sessions.

On the downside, the Pound has an important support area at 207.00. Below here, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of September's rally, at the 206.00 area, seems like a plausible target.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD -0.10% -0.37% -0.31% -0.06% 0.11% -0.32% -0.12%
EUR 0.10% -0.24% -0.21% 0.03% 0.20% -0.22% -0.02%
GBP 0.37% 0.24% 0.02% 0.29% 0.45% 0.04% 0.24%
JPY 0.31% 0.21% -0.02% 0.24% 0.43% -0.02% 0.21%
CAD 0.06% -0.03% -0.29% -0.24% 0.18% -0.25% -0.04%
AUD -0.11% -0.20% -0.45% -0.43% -0.18% -0.43% -0.21%
NZD 0.32% 0.22% -0.04% 0.02% 0.25% 0.43% 0.21%
CHF 0.12% 0.02% -0.24% -0.21% 0.04% 0.21% -0.21%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
October hike odds climb toward 60% as Goldman and BofA both flip — what Warsh's "dose of accommodation" really changedRate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
Author  Irene Q.
Sep 23, Wed
Rate futures now price roughly 55% to 62% for a 25bp hike at the October 27-28 FOMC, up from about 30% before Chair Warsh's post-meeting framing that the Fed is merely "removing some accommodation." Goldman Sachs has added an October hike to its forecast and Bank of America now sees moves in both October and December. Here is the repricing, the language behind it, and the two data points that decide it.
placeholder
Four jobs reports in five days: what JOLTS, ADP, claims and the September payrolls mean for the October Fed decisionThe US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
Author  Mitrade
Sep 28, Mon
The US labour market faces its densest data week of the month. JOLTS job openings land Tuesday (7.2 million expected), ADP on Wednesday (70,000 expected), initial claims on Thursday and the September non-farm payrolls on Friday (100,000 expected, down from 162,000). Markets price a 64%-70% chance of another quarter-point Fed hike on October 28. The dollar index sits at 100.77 and the S&P 500 at 7,729.8.
placeholder
Nvidia's $150 billion buyback landed — and the AI sector fell anyway. That's the signal worth tradingNvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 06: 31
Nvidia closed up 1.68% at $228.86 on 28 September after announcing a $150 billion share repurchase authorisation, the largest single corporate buyback on record, while the rest of the AI complex sold off: AMD -3.6%, Micron -2.6%, Meta -4.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index -1.61%. The divergence is not noise. Capital is rotating toward cash-flow certainty, not abandoning the AI theme. With Micron reporting after the close on 30 September, here is what the split means.
placeholder
The 30-year Treasury just hit a 22-year high — and the bond market is not pricing the Fed, it is pricing the deficitThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
Author  Irene Q.
Yesterday 07: 08
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.56% on 28 September, the highest since June 2004, while the 10-year reached 5.24% and the 20-year 5.60%. The curve has steepened roughly 30bp in eight sessions even as October hike odds sit at 70.3%. That gap is the story: the long end is repricing fiscal and inflation risk, not policy. With PCE on Wednesday and payrolls on Friday, here is what the long end is really saying.
placeholder
【Daily Brief】30-year Treasury tops 5.59%, S&P 500 slips to 7,670 and gold holds $4,180 — PCE lands tonightThe 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Author  Suzie
6 hours ago
The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.59%, its highest since June 2002, and the Dow fell 131.59 points to 51,349.92. US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, a 12-year low, and JOLTS job openings fell to 7.1 million. August PCE and Q3 GDP both land at 8:30am ET tonight.
Related Instrument
goTop
quote