■ AUD/USD is buoyed by an improved risk sentiment and a sluggish US economic calendar.
■ Wall Street opens higher, influencing currencies despite a slight increase in the US Dollar Index.
■ Upcoming Australian employment data could impact AUD strength, with forecasts suggesting modest job growth.
The Australian Dollar makes a U-turn and rises against the US Dollar in early trading during the North American session, gaining 0.33% amid an improvement in risk appetite. A scarce economic calendar in the United States (US) and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to boost the Greenback. The AUD/USD trades at 0.6423.
AUD/USD gains despite hawkish Fed comments; focus on Australian jobs data
Wall Street is setting the tone, opening with gains. US Treasury yields tumble but do not undermine the buck, which stays firm, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY is up 0.11%, at 106.24.
US data revealed during the week showed that American consumers remain resilient while Industrial Production stands tall. On the negative front, US Building Permits and Housing Starts plunged due to higher mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) revealed that rates for 30-year mortgages edged up from 7.01% to 7.13%.
In addition to the data, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the lack of progress on inflation would likely require keeping rates steady for “as long as needed.” The markets perceived Powell as hawkish, though Wednesday’s price action suggests the opposite.
In December 2023, the Fed revealed in its projections that most officials expected to cut rates three times due to the evolution of the disinflation process. Nevertheless, three months of higher inflation than expected via the Consumer Price Index (CPI) sparked Powell’s tilt and a repricing of fewer rate cuts than foreseen.
On the Australian front, it would feature the release of jobs data. The Employment Change is expected to add 7.2K jobs to the workforce, well below the 116.5K created in February, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to edge close to 4%. If the data comes weak, that would warrant a more accommodative policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Hence, AUD/USD traders could push the pair lower.
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
Despite recovering, the AUD/USD is bearishly biased, and it would require buyers to achieve a daily close above the February 13 low of 0.6442. Otherwise, the pair's first support would be the 0.6400 mark, followed by the April 16 daily low of 0.6389. The next support would be 0.6350, followed by the 0.6300 mark.
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