Gold price continues to attract safe-haven flows amid persistent worries about Trump’s trade tariffs.
Mostly upbeat US jobs data and inflationary concerns could allow the Fed to hold interest rates steady.
A modest US Dollar strength might further contribute to capping the upside for the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a positive note and remains well within striking distance of the all-time high touched on Friday amid persistent worries about US President Donald Trump's trade policies. In fact, Trump said on Sunday that he will announce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, sparking concerns about a global trade war and underpinning the safe-haven precious metal.
Meanwhile, expectations that Trump's protectionist policies would reignite inflation turn out to be another factor that benefits the Gold price, which is seen as a hedge against rising prices. That said, mostly upbeat US employment details released on Friday and inflationary concerns should allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stick to its hawkish bias. This, along with modest US Dollar (USD) strength, might cap the non-yielding yellow metal.
Gold price attracts buyers in reaction to US President Donald Trump’s fresh tariff threats
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he will introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US. Trump added that he would announce reciprocal tariffs on all countries and match their tariff rates, bolstering the safe-haven Gold price at the start of a new week.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin said there are no satisfactory proposals to start talks on Ukraine, and that statements from the West and Ukraine are nothing but buzz-building. US Vice President JD Vance is supposedly headed to Germany this week to lay out details of the US proposal.
Investors remain worried that Trump's trade policies could put upward pressure on inflation in the US. This, along with the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday, could limit the scope for the Federal Reserve to ease further and might cap the non-yielding yellow metal.
The closely-watched US monthly jobs data showed that the world's largest economy added 143K jobs in January compared to 170K anticipated and the previous month's upwardly revised reading of 307K. This, however, was offset by an unexpected dip in the Unemployment Rate to 4.0%.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Friday that he would move towards supporting further rate cuts if they see good inflation data and the labor market stays strong. Kashkari added that we are in a good place to sit here until we get more information on the Trump administration's policies.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inconsistent policy approaches from the US government cause a high level of economic uncertainty that makes it difficult for policymakers to draw a bead on where the economy, and inflation specifically, is likely heading.
Meanwhile, Fed Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler said that US growth and economic activity remain healthy overall, but noted that progress toward the 2% inflation goal has been somewhat lopsided. Recent progress on inflation is slow and uneven, Kugler added.
A modest US Dollar strength might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the commodity. Traders now look to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semi-annual congressional testimony and the US consumer inflation figures for a fresh directional impetus.
Gold price needs to consolidate before the next leg up amid an overbought daily RSI
From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is still flashing overbought conditions, warranting caution for bullish traders. This makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for an extension of the Gold price’s well-established uptrend. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront some barrier near the $2,886-2,887 region, or the all-time peak, ahead of the $2,900 mark.
Meanwhile, any corrective slide below the $2,855-2,854 immediate support could be seen as a buying opportunity. This, in turn, should help limit losses for the Gold price near the $2,834 region. Some follow-through selling, however, could drag the XAU/USD further toward the next relevant support near the $2,815-2,814 area en route to the $2,800 round-figure mark.
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