Rocket Lab Just Signed the Biggest Commercial Electron Deal in Its History. Its Launch Backlog Now Tops 100.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) signed a deal for 20 new Electron launches with Japanese radar-satellite operator Synspective late on Sept. 30. The company called it the largest commercial launch contract for Electron in its history. It also boosts Synspective's total to 47 Electron missions, the most of any Rocket Lab launch customer.

And the order took the company's launch backlog beyond 100 missions, up from over 70 contracted missions in early May and 90-plus in August.

The growth stock has risen about 6% since the news, to roughly $74 as I write. Two days before the deal, SpaceX's huge Starship rocket first reached orbit -- another reason some investors worry about Rocket Lab's launch business.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Synspective keeps booking years ahead

Synspective makes StriX satellites, which use radar to image the ground through clouds and at night. It was one of Electron's first customers, and the relationship has grown fast.

When the two companies signed a 10-launch deal in September 2025, Synspective had six StriX satellites in orbit and 21 more Electron missions booked. After a Sept. 26 launch from New Zealand, it now has 13 of its originally planned 30 satellites up, with 34 launches left. The 20 new missions are scheduled yearly from 2028 through 2031.

In other words, Synspective flew seven more missions in a year and still added to its order.

"Securing another 20 dedicated launches now gives us long-term certainty for our constellation expansion," Synspective founder and CEO Motoyuki Arai said in Rocket Lab's announcement.

I'd say that's the key to Electron's appeal. A customer booking rides years ahead is buying a launch on its own schedule, to its own orbit, on a rocket sized for its satellites. A seat on a far bigger SpaceX rocket is a different product, which may explain why Electron keeps winning repeat customers.

How long would 100 missions take?

Rocket Lab launched 16 Electron rockets in 2024 and a record 21 in 2025. It launched 12 more in the first half of 2026, so it's headed for another record if the second half keeps up.

At last year's rate, a 100-mission backlog would take around five years to fly. Of course, that's a rough estimate, because some of the count is booked on Neutron, the bigger reusable rocket that hasn't launched yet.

Still, the direction's easy to see. The count climbed by around 30 missions in under five months, even as Electron kept flying.

The economics have moved the right way, too. Highlighting the improvement, Rocket Lab's revenue per launch was $9.2 million in the first half of 2026, versus $7.5 million a year earlier. Meanwhile, cost per launch dropped to $4.9 million from $5.3 million. Management credits customer mix and mission complexity for the rise, so it's not a clean price hike.

But a launch book that runs years ahead could give Rocket Lab less reason to discount.

The stock still looks overpriced

Rocket Lab didn't say what Synspective is paying. But if the 20 launches price anywhere near the first half's average, they'd be worth roughly $180 million spread across four years, starting in 2028. That's around $45 million a year, against the $250 million to $265 million in revenue management expects for the third quarter alone.

Launch is also the smaller piece of the business. In the second quarter, launch services revenue fell 4% to $44.6 million compared to the year-ago quarter, mainly because of the timing of revenue recognition. That was under a fifth of Rocket Lab's $234 million in total revenue.

Meanwhile, a share price around $74 values Rocket Lab at about $50 billion, counting its convertible preferred shares and September's stock sale. Rocket Lab still loses money (its second-quarter net loss was $49 million, down from $66 million a year before), so a price-to-earnings ratio doesn't apply. Instead, the stock trades at almost 50 times sales, based on the annual revenue pace of about $1 billion that its third-quarter guidance implies. And a big chunk of Rocket Lab's launch growth from here rides on Neutron, which the company said in August it aims to deliver to its launch pad this quarter.

Does a backlog of over 100 missions change the case against the stock? Not for me. It makes Electron's next several years unusually easy to see, and it suggests small-satellite operators still want a dedicated ride even while SpaceX's capacity grows. But this deal adds modest revenue that won't come in until 2028, and the valuation already assumes years of growth far beyond Electron. I'd want a much lower price before buying the stock.

Daniel Sparks has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.