Is Oklo the Next Great AI Power Story? Here's the Bull Case.

Artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have lately felt as up and down as waves in a wave pool. If you've been to a water park, you know what I'm talking about: One minute the siren is going off, a big wave comes, and everyone enthusiastically shrieks, whoops, or yelps with nervous laughter. The wave crashes, and there's a calm before the next one comes.

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO), a developer of small nuclear reactors and a future power supplier for AI data centers, is one of these wavelike stocks. Sept. 8's quick rally exemplified it: The nuclear energy stock jumped about 5%, without any announcement or fresh news from the company. It was riding a wave of optimism, it seemed, which also lifted its competitor NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) over 15%.

That's been roughly the story of Oklo since it came on the market in May 2024: big rallies, followed by steep drops. The stock is trailing the market in 2026, down about 39% on the year, and far below its 52-week high of about $194. Meanwhile, analysts' average price target of $80 suggests another crest is coming.

So what's the bull case for Oklo? What would it take for the energy stock to double from here?

The bull case for Oklo

The bull case for Oklo will always start with its regulatory hurdles: For this stock to move, it needs approval for its Aurora powerhouse (its flagship reactor design) from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). If not, then the company will have a meltdown.

Luckily, Oklo has been advancing through the process, even more now that the Trump administration has pledged to quadruple the U.S.'s nuclear capacity by 2050. A list of regulatory milestones in 2026 would have to include the approval of its Principal Design Criteria (PDC) topical report for Aurora, the first of which is now under construction at Idaho National Laboratory.

Another regulatory milestone that supports the bull case is authorization from the Department of Energy (DOE) for its Grove Isotope Test Reactor. This is not an Aurora powerhouse, that is, not a reactor that will power AI data centers. The Grove reactor will support Oklo's isotope business -- a potential multibillion-dollar opportunity -- which could generate revenue for Oklo even before its AI-related reactors get the green light.

Beyond regulatory approval, the bull case also needs potential projects, and Oklo has no shortage of them. Its backlog has reached 14 gigawatts (GW), largely through non-binding agreements. In January 2026, it inked a landmark deal with Meta Platforms to develop a 1.2-GW power campus for the tech company's data centers in Ohio.

The significance lies in one detail: Meta will prepay for power. In other words, this up-front payment will help Oklo -- cash-burning, revenue-deficient Oklo -- fund construction, potentially limiting its reliance on debt financing.

Image source: Oklo.

Now here's the rub: For Oklo's bull case to play out, investors have to be patient. There's simply no other way. Even in the most bullish scenario, I wouldn't expect an operating Aurora powerhouse before 2028, even later for those built for Meta.

In the meantime, Oklo stock will go through plenty of ups and downs -- the wave pool won't stop. Due to the need for clean energy, however, Oklo certainly has the potential to double, perhaps gain even more, over a long period. But only those who can wait it out should take on the risks of investing in it today.

Steven Porrello has positions in Oklo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.