Should You Buy Intel Stock After a Nearly Fourfold Year?

Two things at Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) have nearly quadrupled over the past 12 months. One is the quarterly operating income of the chipmaker's data center business. The other is its stock price, which trades near $96 as of this writing, up from a 52-week low of $24.05 and about a third below the high of $142.35 it set in late June.

The rally has lifted Intel's market value to about $500 billion -- this for a company that lost $11 billion on paper in its most recent quarter. And the price is about 47 times what analysts think the company can earn next year.

The business is improving faster than it has in years. I just don't think it has improved as fast as the price.

Image source: Intel.

The data center business earned the rally

Intel's second-quarter revenue of $16.1 billion was up 25% year over year -- growth CEO Lip-Bu Tan called the company's strongest in more than 15 years.

No part of the company improved more than the data center and artificial intelligence (AI) segment. A year ago, the segment earned $633 million of operating income in a quarter. In the first quarter of 2026, it earned $1.5 billion. And in the second quarter, the figure reached $2.5 billion. Revenue growth is accelerating as well, from 22% in the first quarter to 59% in the second.

Management said the quarter's server growth was the strongest on record. The segment's operating margin, meanwhile, now sits at about 40%.

Companywide, adjusted earnings per share swung from a year-ago loss of $0.10 to a profit of $0.42.

The $11 billion net loss Intel reported for the period, meanwhile, traces to a $12.5 billion noncash charge tied to shares held in escrow for the U.S. government, which took a stake in the company last year. Cash from operations during the quarter was $7 billion.

Is the foundry fixed?

Not yet -- but it is losing money more slowly. Intel Foundry's second-quarter revenue grew 31% year over year to $5.8 billion, and it still lost $2.1 billion at the operating line, an improvement from $3.2 billion in the same period last year. First-half losses total $4.5 billion, down from $5.5 billion a year earlier.

Nearly all of that revenue, however, still comes from Intel buying from itself. Customers outside the company accounted for just $293 million in the period, compared with $22 million in the same quarter of 2025. That leaves external sales at less than 2% of Intel's total revenue.

So far, Intel has yet to announce a high-volume outside customer for Intel 14A, its next-generation manufacturing process. The foundry did sign a named customer in July, when cybersecurity specialist Fortinet picked Intel to build its next security chip. But that chip will use an older Intel process, not 14A.

Of course, the spending comes first. David Zinsner, Intel's chief financial officer, said in the second-quarter earnings release that to support expected growth "this year and next across products and foundry, we are meaningfully increasing our investments in equipment, clean room space, and substrates."

Additionally, Intel sold about 242 million new shares at $95 apiece in August, raising about $23 billion. The sale gives Intel a war chest for the build-out, and it puts the share count about 20% above the year-ago average.

The stock is priced ahead of the business

Intel's adjusted earnings per share total $0.71 through two quarters, and management guided to $0.38 for the third. Even with a stronger fourth quarter, 2026 looks likely to land near $1.50 per share. Analysts expect about $2 next year.

That works out to 47 times next year's earnings with the stock at about $96. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), the world's largest chip foundry and arguably the finished version of the business Intel is trying to build, costs about 20 times its expected earnings for next year.

In other words, the market is not paying for what Intel earns today. It is paying for what could happen: the data center segment keeps growing quickly, the foundry approaches breakeven, and outside customers sign on in volume. Each looks more believable after the second quarter. But at this valuation, all three need to happen just to hold the current price.

Ultimately, is Intel stock a buy after a year like that? I don't think so.

Growth could keep accelerating, and the foundry's losses could keep narrowing. The second quarter showed both. But the price already assumes years more of it. If I wanted to own a leading-edge foundry today, I'd rather buy Taiwan Semiconductor at less than half the forward price-to-earnings multiple. As for Intel, I'd wait for a better entry point.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Fortinet, Intel, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.