Constellation Energy's Biggest AI Power Deal Doesn't Start Paying Until June 2027

In June of last year, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) agreed to buy the clean energy attributes of Constellation Energy's (NASDAQ:CEG) Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois for 20 years. The agreement covers 1,121 megawatts of nuclear generation -- more output than Constellation has committed to any other artificial intelligence (AI) buyer. The next-biggest is the roughly 835-megawatt agreement that is restarting a Three Mile Island unit for Microsoft.

But the Meta contract doesn't commence until June 2027, nine months from now. And it means the results Constellation is reporting today, including the guidance it raised with last month's second-quarter report, don't include a dollar from the company's biggest AI agreement.

For investors who own the stock as a way to play AI's power demand, I think the calendar is worth getting straight. Shares go for about $299 as of this writing. Their high over the past year was $412.70. The growth the market is paying for arrives on a schedule.

Image source: Getty Images.

What exactly did Meta buy?

The social media company is purchasing Clinton's clean energy attributes for two decades as part of its commitment to match 100% of its electricity use with clean and renewable energy. The plant's power itself keeps flowing onto the local grid.

The agreement also supported relicensing the facility, and regulators granted the renewal in December 2025, clearing Clinton to run through 2047. And plant upgrades will add 30 megawatts of output along the way.

The June 2027 start date isn't arbitrary. Clinton is supported today by Illinois's ratepayer-funded zero-emission credit program, and the Meta agreement begins when that program expires.

In other words, the plant is being paid right now. The deal changes who pays for Clinton's clean energy attributes, not whether anyone does.

More start dates ahead

The Meta contract is one item in a queue. Constellation's 20-year agreement with Microsoft begins when the Crane Clean Energy Center, the former Three Mile Island unit, comes back online.

Regulators have approved transferring interconnection rights to the site from two Pennsylvania fossil-fuel units Constellation had planned to retire, along with a fuel license amendment -- progress the company said moves the plant closer to restarting in 2027.

Constellation's second-quarter update also disclosed 920 megawatts of new long-term contracts to sell nuclear power, signed with investment-grade customers on 15-to-20-year terms with start dates from 2029 through 2032. Among them is a 176-megawatt deal with Walmart that will support a 30-megawatt capacity expansion at Constellation's Dresden plant in Illinois.

So the contracted demand arrives in stages -- Meta in June 2027, the Crane restart the same year, and the newest agreements from 2029 on. Not one of them adds anything to this year's results.

This year's growth doesn't need Meta

The queue matters because Constellation's earnings are climbing without it.

Constellation's non-GAAP (adjusted) operating earnings rose to $2.55 per share in the second quarter of 2026, about 34% higher than the $1.91 it earned a year earlier. The company credited the addition of Calpine, the natural gas and geothermal generator it acquired in January, along with favorable market and portfolio conditions, partially offset by nuclear outages. Constellation also lifted its guidance for the full year and now expects adjusted operating earnings of $11.50 to $12.50 per share in 2026. Showing how much growth is arriving before any AI contract kicks in, the midpoint of that range sits about 28% above the $9.39 per share the company earned last year.

In short, the earnings the stock is priced against are moving higher on their own, with the contracted nuclear deals stacked on top starting in the middle of next year.

Shares trade at about 25 times earnings, measured against the midpoint of Constellation's 2026 guidance. It's a premium price for a power producer, but I'd argue it's attached to unusually visible growth: the customers are signed and the start dates are on paper.

Of course, contracted isn't the same as guaranteed. The plants have to run, the Crane restart could slip, and a 20-year agreement can't pull its start date forward.

But growth backed by signed contracts is arguably easier to count on than growth that depends on demand that may never show up. Constellation's biggest AI deal starts paying next June. Until then, the earnings carrying the stock don't need it.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Constellation Energy, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.