USA Rare Earth Sits on $1.5 Billion in Cash and Almost No Revenue. Here's How to Value That

USA Rare Earth's (NASDAQ: USAR) goal is to become a leader in critical minerals and a leading production partner for rare-earth elements, oxides, metals, and magnets. The company went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in 2025, and it's been raising capital by selling its stock. Notably, the mining specialist has sold a significant equity stake to the U.S. government -- with the initial deal working out to a 10% ownership position and options to exercise warrants that could bring the government's ownership position as high as 16%.

Thanks to the company's fundraising moves, USA Rare Earth closed out the second quarter with a cash position of roughly $1.53 billion. Meanwhile, the company generated just $5.8 million in revenue in the quarter. With its current market capitalization at roughly $4.4 billion, even though the business is generating very little in sales, how should investors value the company?

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USA Rare Earth is a speculative bet with real catalysts

Rare-earth elements and the broader category of critical minerals are essential for a wide range of defense and commercial technologies, and the U.S.'s ability to source these crucial building blocks represents a potentially foundational supply chain fault line with huge economic and national security implications.

China currently dominates the global market for the extraction and processing of rare-earth elements and critical minerals, and the U.S. and its allies are heavily reliant on its exports. Meanwhile, relations between the U.S. and China have generally become more adversarial, and China has moved to restrict access to minerals as a key point of leverage against its geopolitical rivals.

In response to sourcing dynamics surrounding critical minerals, the U.S. is taking steps and moving quickly to increase its ability to reduce its reliance on China for important metals and elements. So while USA Rare Earth is currently generating little revenue relative to its valuation, there are good reasons to think that the business will scale rapidly.

USA Rare Earth is on track for a transformative acquisition

In April, USA Rare Earth announced that it had entered into an agreement to acquire Brazilian rare-earth specialist Serra Verde for roughly $2.8 billion. The deal will see USA Rare Earth pay $300 million in cash and issue roughly 126.5 million new shares of common stock to Serra Verde -- a deal that will be hugely dilutive for shareholders but one that also looks poised to have a beneficial, transformative impact.

To facilitate the deal, the U.S. Department of Defense created a $1.55 billion special-purpose vehicle that includes $750 million in direct investment, $300 million in rare-earth element purchases, and $500 million in credit. With the acquisition's completion, USA Rare Earth projects that Serra Verde alone is on track to reach an annualized run rate for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) between $550 million and $650 million by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, it expects that the combined company will generate roughly $1.8 billion in EBITDA in 2030. If USA Rare Earth hits that target, shares could be significantly undervalued at current prices.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.