I Wouldn't Touch This Hydrogen Stock Yet -- Here's the One Number I'm Waiting On

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) only reports its backlog once a year. But during the company's second-quarter 2026 conference call, management noted that it has material new customers that aren't yet reflected in the backlog numbers it provided at the start of the year. So the backlog is likely even bigger today than it was just eight months ago. But it's the breakdown of the backlog that explains why I'm not willing to buy Bloom Energy, or at least not yet.

What kind of business is Bloom Energy?

Bloom Energy makes hydrogen fuel cells. It is experiencing massive demand for its products due to the rapid build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure. Simply put, the electric grid can't keep up with electricity demand, and Bloom Energy's fuel cells are being used to bridge the gap. They can provide off-grid power, allowing AI data centers to come online without waiting for the local electric utility to connect them to the grid.

Image source: Getty Images.

The company's product backlog was 2.5x larger at the start of 2026 than it was at the start of 2025. And according to management, it is likely even larger now. But here's the interesting thing: that product backlog only accounted for $6 billion of the $20 billion backlog at the start of the year. The rest of the backlog is tied to services.

Each new fuel cell Bloom Energy sells comes with a long-term service contract. The fuel cell is a one-time sale; the service contract creates an annuity-like income stream. Right now, investors are excited about the company's opportunity to sell fuel cells. I'm a dividend investor, so I see the service contracts as the bigger story. The reliable revenue generated from service contracts could someday support a reliable dividend.

Bloom Energy: An evolving business

It's entirely possible that Bloom Energy never gets to the point where it pays a dividend. But that's still the one number I want to see before I will consider buying it. I don't think it is an unreasonable expectation, noting that major technology companies eventually evolved to the point where paying dividends was not just possible, but expected.

Today, Bloom Energy is still a fast-growing hydrogen fuel cell start-up. However, given the importance of services to Bloom Energy's story, I believe it, too, could grow to the point where dividends get paid. And if it does, I'll happily take a closer look at the stock and its reliable recurring service revenues.

Reuben Gregg Brewer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bloom Energy. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.