Elon Musk said SpaceX could reach a $500 billion to $1 trillion annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate by 2027. He made the remarks during the company’s third-quarter webcast.
He also called a possible Tesla merger a good idea. Here is what the numbers and comments mean.
Annual recurring revenue (ARR) is the yearly value of recurring revenue, usually estimated by annualizing a current period.
The range Musk gave runs from $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027. Its upper end depends on expanding compute capacity.
Elon Musk said during the @SpaceX Q3 earnings call that SpaceX could reach a $500 billion to $1 trillion annual recurring revenue run rate by the end of 2027.That would be 5x to 10x growth in a single year, off a $100B+ run rate in 2026. SpaceX is on track to become the most… pic.twitter.com/5RazDHXhof
— Nic Cruz Patane (@niccruzpatane) October 20, 2026
Musk said special committees at SpaceX and Tesla have begun exploring a combination. He called himself a conflicted party and said he is not taking part in those talks.
Any deal would require approval from at least 50% of Tesla shareholders, which Musk called a high hurdle. A combined company would be valued at roughly $2 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla.
Those valuations would make the merger one of the largest on record. Still, Musk stressed that no terms have been agreed and there is no guarantee a deal will occur.
SpaceX posted third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% YoY, beating analyst estimates. Net income reached $4.4 billion, reversing a $1.1 billion loss.
Super Intelligence revenue rose 830% to $7.56 billion, making it the main engine of growth. Connectivity, mainly Starlink, grew 69%, while capital expenditures totaled $19.59 billion.
Reaching the lower end of the range would still require a sharp acceleration from the current quarterly base. Investors will watch whether customer demand can keep pace.
SpaceX has just released its Q3 earnings results.Highlights:• Revenue: $14.58B (+161% YoY; vs. $12.7B est)• Adjusted EBITDA: $8.81B (+306% YoY)• Net income (GAAP): $4.40B (vs. $1.05B loss YoY)• Capex: $19.59B (+185% YoY)• Starlink subs: 13.6M (+89% YoY)• Cash &… pic.twitter.com/dkAsyZRwa7
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) October 20, 2026
Heavy spending means the path to $1 trillion depends on execution, not just ambition. Each quarter’s results will show whether the plan is on track.
Results are strong, but they are a starting point. The next few quarters will test whether revenue growth can justify the capital being deployed.