Arthur Hayes Expects the AI Boom to Overbuild, Crash, and Hand Bitcoin the Bailout

Arthur Hayes has raised a warning about the artificial intelligence (AI) data center buildout. He expects the multi-trillion-dollar boom to end in a crash and a bailout.

But why does that matter for crypto? According to the former BitMEX CEO, Bitcoin (BTC) and other crypto would soak up the excess liquidity that follows.

Who Pays for the AI Boom When the Data Centers Open?

Estimates for the US buildout’s cost range from $2.8 trillion by 2030 to $10.3 trillion by 2032, Forbes reported. Developers have already raised at least $1.3 trillion in debt, according to credit platform Atrium. 

However, Hayes described the spending as “wasting multi-trillion dollars.” He made the comments to CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investing Conference in Singapore.

He said the buildout will leave computing power cheap and plentiful. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic drive much of the demand, yet none of them makes money, he added. 

Notably, Columbia economist Stijn van Nieuwerburgh says a 10% return on that spending requires $3.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2032.

Once construction ends, infrastructure providers will seek payment for the compute AI companies committed to. Hayes expects that test in late 2027 or 2028.

“If you study financial history and you study every single major technological rollout, it always is overbuilt. There always is a crash, and there always is a bailout,” Hayes mentioned.

He said investors who position for bailouts benefit, citing the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Hayes has previously argued that US insurers are insolvent over their AI debt exposure.

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Where Does Bitcoin Stand While the AI Bailout Bet Waits?

Hayes said he already knows which asset he expects to come out ahead.

“Thankfully, we have bitcoin and other crypto to soak up that excess liquidity, and so we know the asset that’s going to perform the best when the bailout comes,” the executive added.

Hayes’s test sits in late 2027 or 2028. Bitcoin, meanwhile, spent this week shaking out leverage. Early Wednesday, $403.58 million in leveraged crypto longs was liquidated within one hour as Bitcoin slid to about $83,800.

At press time, Bitcoin traded at $84,045, down 1.66% over the past 24 hours, per BeInCrypto Markets. That leaves it about 33% below its $126,080 all-time high from October 2025.

The AI boom has already impacted a part of Bitcoin’s mining industry. Several former miners have shifted to AI computing.

BTIG analyst Greg Lewis said almost any company with ready access to power seems able to win contracts. This pivot has proven beneficial for the stocks. Lewis cited share-price gains at Cipher Digital and TeraWulf over the past year.

Riot Platforms, for instance, signed a $9.1 billion, 20-year lease with Anthropic in August for 191 megawatts in Texas.  Riot also sold Bitcoin to fund the shift. Its holdings fell from 15,680 BTC to 11,380 BTC in the second quarter.

If Hayes’s crash reaches AI tenants, how would miners like Riot, which sold Bitcoin to build for them, hold up? Nonetheless, Hayes, for his part, said he does not like shorting AI companies, calling it “not really a great investment opportunity.”

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