Kevin O'Leary Names the One Thing Standing Between Bitcoin and $1 Million

Kevin O’Leary says Bitcoin (BTC) can reach $1 million. He attaches one condition, which is resolving doubts about quantum computing breaking the encryption behind the network.

The O’Leary Ventures chairman set out that condition, speaking with The Rollup podcast at Avalanche Summit in New York. 

Why Quantum Doubt Stands Between Bitcoin and $1 Million

Interviewers asked O’Leary directly whether Bitcoin would ever trade at seven figures. He said it would, then named the obstacle.

“It will if it can resolve the doubt creeping in around quantum computing, you know, breaking the algorithms and the chain and the encryption,” O’Leary said.

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Bitcoin traded near $81,177 on September 19, according to BeInCrypto Markets. Reaching $1 million means a gain of about 1,132%, or more than 12 times the current price.

Meanwhile, the risk he describes is known as Q-Day. The term describes the moment when a quantum computer becomes powerful enough to break public-key cryptography. No such computer exists yet.

How Much Bitcoin Already Sits Exposed

Glassnode calculated in May that about 6.04 million BTC, or 30.2% of the issued supply, already sat in addresses whose public keys are already visible. Those coins would offer the clearest targets once quantum key-breaking becomes practical.

The hardware bar has dropped, too. Google Quantum AI said in March that breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography could need fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. Earlier estimates put that figure in the millions.

The threat timeline is also shortening. NIST wants vulnerable encryption phased out by 2030 and banned by 2035. Google has set its own post-quantum migration deadline at 2029. That makes preparation urgent while Q-Day is still years away.

The fear already shapes behavior. O’Leary said in February that institutions would not go beyond a 3% Bitcoin allocation until it is resolved. 

Some have gone further. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed a 10% Bitcoin position from his model portfolio over the same worry.

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