Anthropic may have solved the AI profit problem ahead of its IPO

Anthropic reassured investors that its adjusted operating income will remain positive for another quarter. According to people familiar with the matter, the company will have gross margins over 80% before accounting for model training costs and revenue sharing with partners like Amazon.

For some time now, there have been concerns that the company is spending more on AI development, and with an IPO in the works, staying profitable would be an important milestone.

The company has reportedly settled on Nasdaq for its public listing, which could value the firm at over $2 trillion. If the company moves forward with it, it could break the record set by SpaceX, which went public in June at a $1.77 trillion valuation.

Though the firm was expected to publish its prospectus last week, it has instead given a select group of investors access to the documents and is gathering their feedback before releasing them publicly. 

The positive earnings outlook could be particularly important as Anthropic prepares for a potential public listing. Investors have become increasingly focused on whether leading AI companies can turn rapid revenue growth into sustainable profits, rather than relying on continued access to large amounts of capital.

Anthropic’s annual revenue could triple by 2027

Anthropic achieved an adjusted operating profit in the second quarter on the back of $11.5 billion in revenue—a 14-times increase year-over-year. The group’s financial momentum continued into late July; its annual revenue pace shot up to $65 billion, well above the $9 billion baseline at the close of last year. Now the company still anticipates profits in its third quarter.

Speaking on future revenue, Joey Brookhart, an AI lab analyst at SemiAnalysis, also noted that some investors expect Anthropic’s annual revenue to reach $120 billion by the end of the year and nearly triple that by the end of 2027.

Additional reports also showed that the company is forecasting revenue of around $190 billion to $200 billion for 2028. Backing up this optimistic outlook, the tech giant said it already has 6,000 customers who spend at least $100,000 every year. 

Though given the company’s current margins, Brookhart cautioned that other firms may not be able to compete. He stated, “If you continue to operate at these margins and growth rates, it will be so hard to compete [with Anthropic] because they have so much [computing resource].” 

However, tracking Anthropic’s progress will be difficult going forward, as many people are calling for a slowdown in AI tech. Pausing would save the firm billions in model-training expenses but could help competitors close the distance.

CEO Dario Amodei more recently stated that the industry must slow model upgrades as concerns mount about AI power. He contended, “Not building the technology deprives humanity of benefits or simply places AI in the hands of authoritarian powers, while building it too fast is reckless.” 

He explained that drastic AI improvements, if left unmanaged, could outpace our capacity to comprehend or manage the systems, meaning development must proceed with extreme caution—if at all.

This stance was mirrored by Sam Altman and Elon Musk. Altman confirmed to Fortune that OpenAI will remain private this year despite a confidential June IPO filing, saying 2026 is an unsuitable time to go public.

Overall, several AI firms have spent recent weeks in private discussions regarding mutual safety protocols. Sources close to the talks say they were prompted by three main factors: recent cybersecurity breaches, rising concern among researchers regarding next-generation AI capabilities, and the political reality that President Donald Trump is unlikely to halt AI advancement.

Anthropic’s Fable 5 sales flattened

Most AI companies are banking on new models for profits. However, data from Ramp’s tracking of company expenses shows that spending on Anthropic’s priciest and most powerful model, Fable 5, has stalled at only about 11% of their total sales, even though it has been out for over two months.

Even more notably, Anthropic’s lower-priced Opus 5 model overtook Fable 5 in business popularity shortly after its debut in late July. 

Several big AI labs are gambling billions on building the smartest models possible, assuming people will pay top dollar for superior performance. Should enterprise buyers favor more economical alternatives that meet basic requirements, the industry’s underlying economic assumptions would change completely.

Anthropic’s financial performance therefore presents a mixed picture ahead of a potential IPO. Strong revenue growth, high gross margins and a growing enterprise customer base could support the company’s case for a multitrillion-dollar valuation.

However, the slowdown in demand for its most expensive model highlights the challenge of convincing customers to pay more for increasingly advanced AI.

As Anthropic and its rivals continue spending heavily on computing and model development, investors will be watching closely to see whether rapid AI growth can translate into durable profits.

The company’s ability to balance expansion with rising development costs could ultimately become one of the biggest factors shaping its public-market debut.

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