The Australian Dollar thanks Waller's comments, which sink the USD

• AUD/USD hits 0.7200 as Waller trims Fed hike bets.
• ISM price pressures and Oil gains keep inflation risks alive.
• NFP and jobless rate could reset September Fed expectations.

The Australian Dollar rises against the US Dollar on Thursday as Fed Governor Waller turns moderately dovish ahead of the September meeting, even as Oil prices rise due to a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7200, up 0.44%.

AUD/USD rises as Fed hike bets ease despite stronger services inflation

Sentiment remains upbeat as attacks around the Strait of Hormuz persist. The Greenback’s sell-off continued, spurred by a rate check from Tokyo, which sent USD/JPY tumbling, dragging the US Dollar Index (DXY) with it. The DXY, which tracks the performance of a basket of six currencies against the US Dollar, is down 0.58% at 99.00.

US ISM Services PMI improves; jobless claims within familiar levels and Waller shifts stance

Business activity in the US, as revealed by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), improved from 54.1 to 55.4 in August, exceeding forecasts. The sub-component of prices paid, at 72.6, up from 70.3, indicates that inflationary pressures continued to build.

Earlier, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 29 ticked higher from 204K to 206K, above estimates of 205K.

Fed Governor Waller indicated support for keeping rates steady, contingent on the disinflation trend. However, he cautioned that a strong US CPI report next week could lead to a rate hike.

Given the backdrop, money markets adjusted expectations for interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. For the September meeting, the chances of a 25 bps rate hike were trimmed from 64% to 54%, while the chances of a hold increased to 46%, according to Prime Terminal.

Ahead, traders eye the release of August’s Nonfarm Payrolls along with the Unemployment Rate. In Australia, the docket is absent, with market participants leaning into the dynamics of market mood and the US Dollar.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7200, maintaining a bullish near‑term tone as price holds above the clustered 50, 100 and 200‑day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) around 0.7032 and respects the broader series of rising support trend lines originating between 0.6673 and 0.6897. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 66.14 leans toward upbeat momentum without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions, while the pair remains contained within the longer‑term downward resistance trend line stemming from the 0.8015 region, which still caps the broader upside.

On the downside, initial demand is seen at the horizontal support level at 0.7198, which now acts as a pivot just beneath spot, followed by the dense SMA support cluster near 0.7032 and the sequence of rising trend‑line supports anchored around 0.7005, 0.6898, 0.6897 and 0.6673. On the topside, a sustained break above the descending resistance trend line coming off 0.8015 would be needed to open the way for a more aggressive extension of the current recovery phase in the days ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)