Ripple Price Forecast: XRP extends decline as returning ETF inflows fail to lift outlook
- XRP falls toward the $1.30 critical support area as macroeconomic uncertainty grips the broader crypto market.
- US-listed XRP spot ETFs recorded $5 million in inflows on Thursday, falling short of the tailwind needed for recovery.
- XRP flips the 200-day EMA into resistance as falling momentum indicators weigh on price action.
Ripple (XRP) falls below $1.33 on Friday, marking the third consecutive day of declines. The token continues to track the broader cryptocurrency market downturn, with investors closely monitoring heightened macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and next week’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision.
“With CPI this afternoon and the FOMC next week, the next few sessions will determine whether investors are right to challenge policymakers, or whether policymakers respond with more force than the market currently expects,” Crypto Finance analysts said in a written comment.
XRP capital inflows return
US-listed spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of approximately 5$ million on Thursday, extending the bullish streak for three days. SoSoValue data shows cumulative inflows holding at $1.7 billion, while net assets under management average $1.45 billion, signaling persistent risk-on appetite. Sustained ETF inflows could help insulate XRP from macro-driven volatility and improve the likelihood of a near-term rebound.
However, retail demand remains subdued, as reflected by perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) at 2.17 billion XRP on Friday, down slightly from 2.19 billion the day before. The suppressed OI is against the backdrop of higher demand in August, which peaked at 2.78 billion. If demand continues to soften, XRP will lack the much-needed tailwind to sustain recovery in the short to medium term.
Technical analysis: XRP slides as headwinds persist
XRP trades at $1.32, holding below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.36 and under the Parabolic SAR at $1.57, which maintains a capped, near-term bearish bias. Price remains, however, above the 50-day EMA at $1.27 and the 100-day EMA at $1.25, hinting at residual underlying demand, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 49 suggests neutral momentum and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero reinforces waning bullish pressure.
Initial resistance lies at the 200-day EMA around $1.36, with a stronger barrier at the Parabolic SAR level near $1.57, and a daily close above the former would be needed to ease the current downside bias. On the downside, immediate support is the 50-day EMA at $1.27, followed by the 100-day EMA near $1.25, and a sustained break below these averages would likely open the door to a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Crypto ETF FAQs
An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is an investment vehicle or an index that tracks the price of an underlying asset. ETFs can not only track a single asset, but a group of assets and sectors. For example, a Bitcoin ETF tracks Bitcoin’s price. ETF is a tool used by investors to gain exposure to a certain asset.
Yes. The first Bitcoin futures ETF in the US was approved by the US Securities & Exchange Commission in October 2021. A total of seven Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved, with more than 20 still waiting for the regulator’s permission. The SEC says that the cryptocurrency industry is new and subject to manipulation, which is why it has been delaying crypto-related futures ETFs for the last few years.
Yes. The SEC approved in January 2024 the listing and trading of several Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds, opening the door to institutional capital and mainstream investors to trade the main crypto currency. The decision was hailed by the industry as a game changer.
The main advantage of crypto ETFs is the possibility of gaining exposure to a cryptocurrency without ownership, reducing the risk and cost of holding the asset. Other pros are a lower learning curve and higher security for investors since ETFs take charge of securing the underlying asset holdings. As for the main drawbacks, the main one is that as an investor you can’t have direct ownership of the asset, or, as they say in crypto, “not your keys, not your coins.” Other disadvantages are higher costs associated with holding crypto since ETFs charge fees for active management. Finally, even though investing in ETFs reduces the risk of holding an asset, price swings in the underlying cryptocurrency are likely to be reflected in the investment vehicle too.
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