If You'd Held VTI Through Every Recession Since 2001, Here's Exactly How Much You'd Have Today

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • There have been three recessions and four bear markets over the past 25 years.

  • The Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF has averaged a nearly 10% annualized return since then.

  • A $10,000 investment in VTI would have turned into $215,000 today.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF ›

Since 2000, there have been three recessions in the United States -- the Dotcom recession from March to November 2001, the Great Recession from December 2007 through June 2009, and the COVID recession that started in February 2020.

There have also been four bear markets since 2000 -- from 2000 to 2002, from 2007 to 2009, during the COVID outbreak in 2020, and in 2022.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

Through those shocks, which mostly align with one another, markets have endured and grown. There is no better gauge of that, perhaps, than the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI).

Four people seated at a table cheering and smiling.

Image source: Getty Images.

This ETF tracks the Morningstar U.S. Total Market Index, which measures the performance of the entire U.S. equity market, spanning mega-, large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks.

So, with some 3,500 holdings, this ETF tracks the entire market and has done so since it launched in 2001.

VTI versus the S&P 500

So, how has the ETF performed over the years? Since its inception on May 24, 2001, the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF has had an average annualized total return of 9.6%.

That's actually better than the S&P 500 over that same time period, as the chart below shows.

VTI Chart

VTI data by YCharts

So, through all the recessions and bear markets over the past 25 years, the total market still returned almost 10% per year.

If you had invested $10,000 in VTI 25 years ago, just a few months after the ETF launched, that investment would have grown to about $215,000 today, assuming a 9.6% annual return and a $ 100-per-month contribution.

That really drives home the importance of staying invested, because no matter what the economy or markets throw at us, the U.S. stock market not only endures, but grows over time.

Should you buy stock in Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF right now?

Before you buy stock in Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $355,124!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,296,254!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 901% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 210% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of October 26, 2026.

Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
placeholder
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Drops Below $80,000 in Fifth Straight Loss, May Test $75,000 as FOMC Meeting Approaches Bitcoin falls below the $80,000 mark as the October FOMC decision approaches, threatening a further dip toward $75,000.On October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) again lost the key psychological mark o
Author  TradingKey
7 hours ago
Bitcoin falls below the $80,000 mark as the October FOMC decision approaches, threatening a further dip toward $75,000.On October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) again lost the key psychological mark o
placeholder
Gold breaks $4,000 as oil becomes the inflation problem — $3,943 is the line that mattersSpot gold closed at $3,995.6 on October 23, down about 4.1% for the week and at its lowest since mid-July, and traded near $3,988 on October 26 even as Brent crude settled at $116.72 and Middle East supply risk stayed elevated. The war premium stopped working because oil is now the inflation trade: December Fed hike odds are 68.9% and the 10-year yield is 4.988%. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain, and the July low at $3,943 that decides whether this is a bottom or a bigger correction.
Author  Irene Q.
10 hours ago
Spot gold closed at $3,995.6 on October 23, down about 4.1% for the week and at its lowest since mid-July, and traded near $3,988 on October 26 even as Brent crude settled at $116.72 and Middle East supply risk stayed elevated. The war premium stopped working because oil is now the inflation trade: December Fed hike odds are 68.9% and the 10-year yield is 4.988%. Here are the three numbers, the transmission chain, and the July low at $3,943 that decides whether this is a bottom or a bigger correction.
placeholder
Big Tech's $800 billion AI bill faces its first real test — free cash flow is the judgeAlphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
Author  Irene Q.
12 hours ago
Alphabet and Microsoft report after the close on October 28, Amazon on October 29, with hyperscaler AI capex running near $800 billion a year. Meta's negative free cash flow and 9.40% drop on October 22 was the warning; this week's prints decide whether cloud growth and backlog can pay for the buildout. Here are the consensus numbers, the free-cash-flow table and the two-sided test.
placeholder
Gold Price Analysis Today | Forex Gold Analysis | XAU/USD Analysis - October 26, 2026Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
Author  Mitrade
15 hours ago
Get the latest gold price analysis, forex gold insights, and XAU/USD analysis for October 26, 2026. Read on for the details.
placeholder
WTI drops to near 101.00 as Trump rules out immediate Iranian strikesWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after registering over 4% gains in the previous trading day, hovering around $101.10 during Asian hours on Monday.
Author  FXStreet
15 hours ago
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price declines after registering over 4% gains in the previous trading day, hovering around $101.10 during Asian hours on Monday.
goTop
quote