Anthropic Could Beat OpenAI to Wall Street by Over a Year

Anthropic could reportedly begin marketing its initial public offering (IPO) as early as the week of Nov. 9 and potentially start trading before Thanksgiving. OpenAI has now ruled out a 2026 IPO after CEO Sam Altman said it would prioritize artificial intelligence (AI) safety and that a listing would not take place until 2027 at the earliest.

Hence, Anthropic increasingly appears likely to reach Wall Street first. But OpenAI would need to remain private until roughly late November 2027 or later for the gap to exceed 12 months.

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A $100 billion IPO would still fall far short of Anthropic's spending commitments

Anthropic has committed at least $518 billion to future cloud, computing, and infrastructure spending over multiple years. Roughly 80% of those obligations are noncancelable or payable regardless of utilization.

Anthropic could reportedly raise up to $100 billion at a valuation approaching $2 trillion. However, $100 billion would cover only about 19% of the company's spending commitments.

Broadcom could lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to help finance its data center infrastructure build-out. That financing would cover roughly one-third of Anthropic's five-year $125.2 billion commitment to lease TPU computing capacity. Yet even that would only cover about 8% of Anthropic's commitments.

In that context, the IPO appears likely to be just one of several sources of funding Anthropic will have to tap to handle its spending plans.

Much of the future growth seems already priced in

Anthropic generated just under $4.6 billion of revenue in 2025, although revenue grew roughly 12-fold. Trade magazine R&D World estimates that Anthropic's 2026 revenue could reach around $60 billion, based on its reported growth trajectory. At a $2 trillion valuation, that would value the company at roughly 33 times estimated 2026 sales.

Anthropic reportedly projects $190 billion to $200 billion of revenue in 2028. To hit the midpoint of that range, revenue would need to rise almost 3.25 times from the $60 billion 2026 estimate in just two years. Yet even if Anthropic reaches $195 billion, a $2 trillion valuation would still equal roughly 10 times 2028 sales.

In short, investors buying this stock while Anthropic sits at a market cap of $2 trillion would be paying for a substantial portion of the company's anticipated growth before it arrives. So, Anthropic may need to show that rapid revenue growth can translate into much stronger profits.

While 83% of Anthropic's 2025 revenue came from usage-based consumption, about 80% of its infrastructure obligations are effectively locked in. Its customers could, if they chose to, cut their AI usage (and their bills) much faster than Anthropic could reduce its compute spending.

OpenAI has less pressure to go public

OpenAI closed a $122 billion private funding round in March that valued the company at $852 billion. The company is now reportedly looking to raise at least another $30 billion privately at a valuation of roughly $1.4 trillion.

So, OpenAI can still raise huge sums of money without going public. This gives it more flexibility to wait before listing its shares, and also allows it to keep avoiding the extra scrutiny that comes with being a public company.

Anthropic is on track to become the first major public company attempting to prove that cutting-edge AI developers can become highly profitable businesses. Investors will be watching to learn whether it can convert rapid top-line growth into impressive bottom-line results.

Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.