Anthropic-SpaceX Compute Deal Size Revealed: Potential Spending Up to $84.5 Billion Nearly Doubles Prior Disclosure

TradingKey - On September 29, US Eastern Time, according to Reuters, Anthropic's confidential IPO prospectus shows that the company contracts with SpaceX (SPCX)'s xAI for computing power services based on Nvidia (NVDA) chips, with potential spending through 2029 reaching up to $84.5 billion, and most agreements can be canceled with 90 days' notice.

What Is Included in the $84.5 Billion Deal?

SpaceX previously disclosed that Anthropic purchases computing power at $1.25 billion per month, with the agreement extending through May 2029. In May and June 2026, as SpaceX gradually increases supply, Anthropic will pay less than $1.25 billion per month during this period.

Based on this, media previously estimated that the potential total value of the agreement was close to $45 billion. The newly disclosed $84.5 billion is approximately 88% higher than that figure, nearly doubling it.

The relevant reports did not specify the exact breakdown of the difference between the two disclosed amounts, and SpaceX's actual revenue remains dependent on contract performance and the delivery of computing power.

Why Anthropic Needs Massive Computing Power?

In a May 6 announcement, Anthropic stated that it will use all the computing power of SpaceX's Colossus 1 data center and expects to obtain over 300 megawatts of capacity within the month, involving more than 220,000 Nvidia GPUs. During the same period, the company raised usage limits for Claude Code and API rate limits for the Claude Opus model to ease usage constraints for users.

According to confidential IPO prospectus documents reviewed by Reuters, Anthropic believes that computing power supply is becoming one of the main constraints on its business growth. The company expects infrastructure-related spending with six partners to reach at least $518 billion over the next decade,

with the SpaceX agreement being part of this total. Approximately 80% of the spending corresponds to non-cancellable contracts or agreements requiring payment regardless of actual usage.

While these arrangements help Anthropic secure long-term computing power supply, they also increase payment pressure. Whether revenue growth can cover long-term computing expenses will affect the company's profitability prospects.

What Is the Impact on SpaceX?

SpaceX's computing power clients also include Google. According to its regulatory filings, Google will pay $920 million per month from October 2026 to June 2029 to use approximately 110,000 Nvidia GPUs and associated computing resources. Leasing computing power provides SpaceX with a revenue stream beyond rocket launches and Starlink.

According to a report by Tom's Hardware, Musk stated on September 25 that Colossus 2 plans to bring online an additional 220,000 GB300 GPUs in the following week and in November, respectively, while aiming to add another 220,000 by the end of December. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether these Blackwell devices can be brought online as scheduled and whether SpaceX will make additional purchases.

Computing power delivery also directly impacts SpaceX's contract revenue. The Google agreement stipulates that if SpaceX fails to provide the agreed GPU capacity by September 30, after a one-month grace period, Google may terminate the agreement or accept the delivered capacity and proportionally reduce the monthly fee.