Prediction: NIO Is a Better Buy Than Lucid for the Next Decade

NIO (NYSE: NIO) and Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) are both electric vehicle (EV) makers that initially soared after their public debuts but fizzled out over the following years.

Nio, a Chinese EV maker, went public at $6.26 per ADR in 2018. Its stock closed at a record high of $62.84 on Feb. 9, 2021, but now trades at less than $4. Lucid, based in the U.S., went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on July 26, 2021. Its stock opened at a reverse split-adjusted price of $252.40 and set a record post-merger high of $577.50 less than four months later. But today, Lucid's stock trades at about $4.

Both stocks look like dangerous investments in this wobbly market. But if I had to pick one as a turnaround play for the next decade, I'd pick NIO over Lucid for five simple reasons.

Image source: Lucid.

1. NIO produces more vehicles than Lucid

NIO produces a wide range of electric sedans and SUVs. It also produces cheaper SUVs and compact cars through its Onvo and Firefly sub-brands, respectively. It sells most of its vehicles in China, but it's been rapidly expanding into Europe.

From 2020 to 2025, NIO's annual vehicle deliveries surged from 43,728 in 2020 to 326,028 in 2025. Lucid, which launched its first sedan in 2021 and first SUV in 2024, increased its annual deliveries from 125 vehicles in 2021 to 15,841 vehicles in 2025.

2. NIO's business looks more sustainable

Lucid's year-over-year delivery growth is faster than NIO's, but it's still too early to tell whether it can achieve economies of scale and stabilize its margins.

In 2025, Lucid generated $1.35 billion in revenue but posted a net loss of $3.68 billion. NIO generated 128.3 billion yuan ($19.1 billion) in revenue with a net loss of 2.2 billion yuan ($330 million). NIO also achieved profitability on an adjusted basis (which excludes its stock-based compensation and other one-time expenses) in the first half of 2026.

3. NIO has clearer competitive advantages

NIO differentiates itself from its competitors by offering removable batteries that can be swapped at its own battery-swapping stations, as a faster alternative to conventional chargers.

It also sells a broad range of EVs across multiple price points -- its namesake brands target higher-end consumers, while its Firefly and Onvo brands target the lower-end market. Its in-house Shenji chips, which power its autonomous driving features, are also more powerful than Nvidia's comparable Orin-X chips.

Lucid's vehicles initially cost a lot more than Tesla's comparable vehicles. But after several price cuts, the base trims of its Air sedans and Gravity SUVs now cost roughly the same as Tesla's EVs. Lucid's EVs have a much longer range (about 100 miles) than Tesla's EVs, but it's still struggling to produce more vehicles and break out of its niche.

4. NIO is less dependent on big government backers

Back in 2020, Nio nearly went bankrupt before a government-backed investor group bailed it out with a $1 billion investment. But since then, Nio has proven that it can grow on its own by streamlining its spending and selling a higher mix of higher-margin vehicles.

Lucid has a similar relationship with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), which owns over 60% of its shares. But unlike NIO, Lucid hasn't proven that it can survive without that government support. Instead, it relies heavily on those investors to fund its ongoing expansion.

5. NIO's stock is cheaper

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect NIO's revenue to grow at a 25% CAGR. They also expect it to turn profitable in 2027 and nearly quintuple its net income in 2028. Those are robust growth rates for a stock that trades at just 0.5 times this year's sales.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Lucid's revenue to grow at a 73% CAGR, but it's expected to stay deeply unprofitable. It only trades at one time this year's sales, but it will struggle to command a higher valuation unless it meaningfully ramps up its production.

So while both of these EV stocks look like risky bets today, NIO clearly has a better shot at revisiting its record highs over the next decade. Lucid claims it has enough liquidity to last through 2027, but it hasn't proven its business is as sustainable as NIO's.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.