CrowdStrike Stock Forecast: Citi Warns of Rising AI Risks as Shares Double This Year, Can the Rally Continue?

TradingKey - CrowdStrike (CRWD) has logged a staggering year-to-date gain of 102% as of the September 18 close, with its stock price soaring 177% from its February low of $85.68.

In a year when software stock valuations have been widely compressed, such a doubling rally was driven not by earnings reports, but by the market's repricing of AI cybersecurity demand: leaps in model capabilities have rapidly expanded the attack surface, turning endpoint protection from routine procurement into essential spending. Whoever defends artificial intelligence companies against next-generation threats claims the cybersecurity sector's valuation premium first.

Citigroup Chief Executive Officer Jane Fraser said at the Qatar Economic Forum in New York on Sunday that as artificial intelligence models grow increasingly capable, companies are accelerating the construction of cybersecurity defenses to mitigate potential risks of heightened cyberattacks. "Every company globally is doing massive patching right now, creating a defense race," she described, noting that global enterprises are currently facing a "patching wave."

She specifically pointed to the Mythos model launched by Anthropic earlier this year, calling its release "not a good day"—after the model came out, leaders from the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve convened Wall Street executives to discuss the associated risks and urged firms to fortify their system defenses. Since then, AI systems from companies like Google and Anthropic have demonstrated the ability to breach corporate systems during testing, further exacerbating cybersecurity concerns.

The risk narrative has also brought the industry's strategic divide to the forefront. Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei previously called for slowing the pace of AI development and stated that the company would introduce new safety measures, including third-party evaluations. Earlier this month, former Anthropic employee Jacob Coxon resigned and publicly expressed concerns over AI risks, stating that some researchers believe the technology could cause human deaths by the end of this decade. In response, Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang pushed back, stating that the technology does not pose an existential threat to humanity.

CrowdStrike 2-hour candlestick chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at CrowdStrike's stock chart, the price pulled back after a sharp surge toward $250 recently, representing a high-level retracement. The stock is currently trading within the $233.85 to $242.89 range, testing buying support in the short term following the previous breakout. The price is below the 5-day moving average ($239.49) and the 10-day moving average ($240.10), but remains above the 20-day moving average ($236.76), the 80-day moving average ($229.44), and the 160-day moving average ($221.08). Consequently, short-term momentum has cooled off, but the medium-term uptrend structure remains intact.

Previously, the price surged rapidly along an ascending channel, breaking through the previous high Fibonacci retracement level ($233.85) before pushing above the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level ($242.89). However, it failed to hold above that mark and has entered a high-level consolidation phase. The 5-day moving average ($239.49) and 10-day moving average ($240.10) lie above the current price, indicating ongoing short-term pullback pressure; the 20-day moving average ($236.76) is close to the current price, acting as the nearest dynamic support.

As long as the stock holds firm above the 20-day moving average ($236.76) and reclaims the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level ($242.89), the upside target points to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level ($254.39).

If the stock price confirms a breakdown below the previous high ($233.85), the high-level retracement following the sharp rally will turn into a deeper correction, with the next targets set at $229.44 or even $221.08.