Elon Musk Can't Sell SpaceX Stock Until June 2027 -- But 6 Billion More Shares Could Flood the Market Before Then
Key Points
Nearly 6 billion SpaceX shares will become eligible for sale during the next year, before Musk can sell any of his shares.
SpaceX's unusually small initial float means future unlocks could still pressure the stock if insiders opt to cash out.
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ: SPCX) went public on June 12, ultimately selling 638.9 million shares at $135 through its initial public offering (IPO), raising a record-setting $85.7 billion in the process.
Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, who owns more than 6 billion in combined Class A and Class B shares -- about 42% of the company by value -- agreed to a 366-day lock-up of his stake. That means he can't sell any shares until June 12, 2027.
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He's not the only one, however. Early investors and SpaceX employees are also temporarily barred from selling their shares. But they don't have to wait a year to do so. During the next year, nearly 6 billion additional shares will become available for sale through staggered lock-up releases before Musk gets his chance to sell.
Let's take a look at that schedule and what it means for SpaceX investors.
SpaceX lock-up expiration schedule: when shares unlock
The first release has actually already happened. On Aug 6, just shy of 912 million shares were unlocked, more than doubling the shares available for sale.
And during the next year, SpaceX employees and investors will have the chance to sell more of their stakes. Here's the schedule:
| Lockup stage | Trigger | Newly eligible shares | Cumulative eligible shares | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timed release | Aug. 20, 2026 | 319 million | 1.69 billion | Automatic calendar-based release |
| Timed release | Sept. 9, 2026 | 319 million | 2.01 billion | Automatic calendar-based release |
| Separate tranche | Sept. 10, 2026 | 59 million | 2.07 billion | Separate lockup tranche |
| Timed release | Sept. 24, 2026 | 328 million | 2.39 billion | Automatic calendar-based release |
| Timed release | Oct. 9, 2026 | 328 million | 2.72 billion | Automatic calendar-based release |
| Timed release | Oct. 24, 2026 | 328 million | 3.05 billion | Automatic calendar-based release |
| Q3 earnings release | Two full trading days after Q3 2026 results | 1.300 billion | 4.349 billion | Largest 2026 earnings-linked tranche |
| End of 180-day lockup | Dec. 8, 2026 | 342 million | 4.691 billion | Completes the main 180-day lockup group |
| Extended lockup release | Two trading days after Q4 2026 results | 352 million | 5.043 billion | Applies to extended-lockup holders excluding Musk |
| Extended timed release | March 18, 2027 | 176 million | 5.219 billion | Extended-lockup group |
| Extended earnings release | Two trading days after Q1 2027 results | 352 million | 5.571 billion | Extended-lockup group |
| Extended timed release | May 17, 2027 | 176 million | 5.747 billion | Extended-lockup group |
| Extended timed release | June 12, 2027 | 352 million | 6.099 billion | Extended-lockup group |
| Musk lockup expires | June 12, 2027 | 6.400 billion | 12.499 billion | Musk's equivalent Class A shares, with no automatic early release |
| Final extended earnings release | Two trading days after Q2 2027 results | 352 million | 12.851 billion | Completes the extended-lockup group |
Source: Reuters
So, by spring of next year, there will be about 10 times as many shares eligible for sale as were sold in the IPO. And by mid-June, when Musk is finally able to sell his shares, 20 times as many will be eligible as at the IPO.
Eligible to sell doesn't mean shares will be sold
I want to make this clear: eligible does not mean sold. Although these unlocks could flood the market with newly released shares, there's no guarantee that will happen. Insiders could very well choose to hold on to their shares, believing that SpaceX stock will rise in the future.
Image source: Getty Images.
And we already saw this happen. Despite fears of the opposite, the first unlock on Aug. 6 didn't lead to a huge selling spree. Not only did SpaceX stock not get hammered as many worried, but it's also gained more than 20% since then.
What this means for SpaceX investors
Still, I don't think we are out of the woods by any means. Just because new supply didn't swamp the market on Aug 6 doesn't mean it won't happen during the next 12 months.
SpaceX went public with an unusually small float -- the shares available to the public. It's part of what made the stock shoot up to more than $225 in the days after the IPO. When you only offer a tiny slice of the pie, it's easier for demand to outstrip supply.
But that works in reverse too -- if a large portion of employees and investors decide they want to make their profits real, each unlock could seriously increase public supply, and I'm not convinced there's enough demand to compensate.
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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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