WTI declines below $82.50 as oil inventories rise far more than expected

• WTI price edges lower to near $82.45 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 

• EIA sees a massive surge in US crude oil inventories. 

• Talks between the US and Iran appear deadlocked as both sides harden their positions. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.45 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. WTI declines on a larger-than-expected build in US crude oil inventories. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks for fresh impetus. 

US crude oil inventories climbed by more than expected last week. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending August 7 jumped by 17.422 million barrels, compared to an increase of 2.479 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus was for a decline of 1.4 million barrels.

Traders await signs of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A senior Iranian official stated the US and Iran remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Middle East, saying that there ‌had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.

US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that Washington has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pushed back on Trump’s claim, insisting the critical waterway remains blocked. Fears of oil supply disruption could boost the WTI price in the near term. 

Rabobank doubts lasting relief from any short-term Hormuz transit deal

Rabobank’s energy strategists caution that hopes for a quick diplomatic fix to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may be misplaced. They argue that “a short-term deal to open up the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely as both sides have very little common ground,” noting that such an arrangement “offers no permanent solutions for the key sticking points that the whole conflict centers around.” Instead, Rabobank expects any agreement to amount to “another 60-day window of free transits through Hormuz while further negotiations resume,” underscoring their view that geopolitical risk around key chokepoints will remain an important driver of Brent and WTI volatility.

Technical Analysis: The bearish outlook of WTI remains intact

In the daily chart, WTI US Oil trades at $81.55. The near-term tone is bearish as price is capped beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.67 and continues to press under the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band at $81.67, leaving the broader uptrend under pressure. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.55 sits in neutral territory, hinting at consolidative momentum rather than a strong directional push, which reinforces the idea of a capped market while these overhead levels remain intact.

On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the Bollinger 20-day SMA around $81.67, followed by the 100-day SMA at $86.67, with the Bollinger upper band near $90.16 forming a higher barrier should buyers regain control. On the downside, initial support is located at the Bollinger lower band near $73.18, where a break would open the way for a deeper corrective slide, while holding above this floor would merely extend the current range-bound consolidation beneath the major moving average ceiling.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)