1 Reason the Crowd Is Wrong to Ignore Royal Caribbean Before July 28

Expectations are low for Royal Caribbean (NYSE: RCL) heading into a critical financial update this week. The country's largest cruise line operator -- by market cap -- is expected to post a modest 6% increase in revenue when it reports its second-quarter results ahead of Tuesday's market open. The bottom line is expected to go the other way.

Royal Caribbean's own guidance three months ago braced investors for contracting margins. Overseas geopolitical tensions would weigh on some of its higher-yielding itineraries. Rising fuel costs are also an obvious headwind, but that's not the only expense percolating. Its guidance for the seasonally potent summertime quarter calls for a 4.9% to 5.4% increase in net cruise costs per available passenger cabin day, and that's excluding the fuel factor.

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The bottom line could be problematic. Royal Caribbean's guidance in late April called for adjusted earnings per share of $3.83 to $3.93 for the quarter it's reporting this week. Analyst per-share estimates are a bit more ambitious at $3.98 a share, and this follows a poorly received report from larger rival Carnival (NYSE: CCL) last month.

Carnival's fiscal year ends a month earlier than Royal Caribbean's, but the latter's second quarter still covers two of the three months that Carnival just reported. Carnival's top-line miss and weak bottom-line guidance hurt the stock. Royal Caribbean will need to buck the trend by offering a reasonable outlook. Don't be surprised if it does exactly that.

Open waters

Royal Caribbean's secret weapon -- the one thing that can prove naysayers wrong this week -- is that it is historically a superior operator than its rivals. Why do you think Royal Caribbean commands the larger market cap and enterprise value despite being a smaller company in terms of revenue and fleet size?

Royal Caribbean has earned its market premium. It has historically posted superior revenue growth and net margin. It was the first of the major ocean liners to return to profitability as well as resume paying quarterly dividends.

Royal Caribbean is cheap, trading for 17 times this year's earnings and less than 15 times next year's target. Carnival may command an even lower forward multiple, but it has also been a relative laggard over long stretches of time. This would be an ideal time to prove Royal Caribbean is worthy of that industry premium.

Rick Munarriz has positions in Royal Caribbean Cruises. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.