A handful of analysts are bullish about Hyperliquid.
The main pillar of the bull thesis is that it mechanically buys back its own token with nearly all of its revenue.
But, competition is already a headwind, and it's likely to become a stronger one.
On June 1, crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that he was watching Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) to see if it could reach a price of $97, and perhaps even as high as $163, meaning he thinks it could be in store for a gain of somewhere between 33% and 123% from its recent price of about $73. That estimate fits with a smattering of other bullish calls from other analysts and high-level crypto industry figures during the past few weeks, and it's certainly a high enough target to raise investors' eyebrows.
Let's take a look at what the analysts are arguing to support their positions.
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Hyperliquid runs a decentralized exchange (DEX) for perpetual futures contracts, a type of financial derivative that tracks the price of an underlying asset and offers exposure to changes in the price without any expiry date for the contract itself.
To provide a return to its holders, Hyperliquid pours about 99% of the trading fees generated by use of its exchanges into buying back and then burning its own token, Hype. So if traders keep using Hyperliquid, each Hype token that isn't burned is worth more over time. During the past 12 months, buybacks have totaled about $880 million. This is the biggest pillar of the bull thesis as proposed by most of the analysts who cover the asset, directly monetizing the network's leading share of decentralized perpetuals, which is about 54% of open interest across all decentralized perpetual exchanges.
The even bigger argument is scale. Through an upgrade called HIP-3, anyone with 500,000 Hype to lock up via staking can launch a perpetual futures market for almost any asset, from commodities to stocks to currencies -- markets whose traditional versions trade in the trillions of dollars a year, so Hyperliquid needs only to capture a sliver to send its buyback-and-burn mechanism into overdrive. A sister upgrade, HIP-4, added on-chain prediction markets in May, so Hyperliquid can now, in theory, contest the market share of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
Aside from the highly uncertain macro environment, the main thing that could throw off the upward march of Hyperliquid's price is competition.
Perpetual future venues are already a crowded segment; when Aster launched in late 2025, Hyperliquid's share of decentralized perpetuals briefly sank sharply before it recovered. If its trading volume is lured to a cheaper rival, there won't be nearly as much incoming cash to funnel into buybacks, and one of the main sources of Hyperliquid's value will decelerate.
Supply is another challenge. Hyperliquid's market cap is near $16 billion, but its fully diluted value -- the worth if every token that can be minted actually existed in circulation today -- tops $70 billion, so most of its possible supply has yet to land on the market. It's going to be disbursed slowly over the coming years to stakers and its own team members. If that new issuance outruns the pace of buybacks, holders get their value diluted.
So, with that in mind, is this coin a buy?
On the basis of its fundamentals, yes, Hyperliquid is worth buying right now, provided you can hold it for at least five years, and provided your portfolio is already sufficiently diversified.
Few crypto tokens pair an in-demand platform with a real and powerful mechanism for routing platform growth to holders.
In this sense, buying Hyperliquid is a lot closer to buying a share of a business than it is to buying a normal crypto token, as its valuation is based on tangible financial metrics and cash flows rather than sentiment alone. And while it's almost guaranteed to be more volatile than a stock, not to mention riskier than most stocks, it's already making waves as one of the most exciting projects in the crypto sector, and that's going to remain true no matter whether the analysts correctly predict its price for the next 12 months.
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Alex Carchidi has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Hyperliquid. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.