Rigetti's technology is progressing, but its revenues are still too small to justify the stock's valuation with much confidence.
Record revenue growth, a large backlog, and rising guidance make IonQ the sector leader, but it still trades at a premium valuation.
D-Wave has strong booking growth, major enterprise contracts, and a lower valuation that suggests the market may be underestimating its commercial momentum.
Shares of IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) all surged in April and May as their quarterly results came in ahead of analysts' estimates and Wall Street started taking the sector seriously again. Then came the reversal. IonQ fell by 21% in a single week in early June despite posting record quarterly revenue. D-Wave is down roughly 23% year to date and has struggled to hold gains even after a bookings quarter that most software companies would celebrate. Rigetti, which has less commercial revenue than the other two, sits down 19% year to date. The Quantinuum (NASDAQ: QNT) IPO filing -- with its $12.7 billion valuation and Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) backing -- reminded public market investors that a better-funded competitor was in the room.
This is what a sector reset looks like. Not a collapse of the underlying technology, but a valuation recalibration after a run-up that had gotten well ahead of the fundamentals. For investors with patience, the gaps between prices and progress are where opportunities live. But not every stock in a beaten-down sector deserves a second look.
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Rigetti Computing posted Q1 2026 revenue of $4.4 million. The company has over $569 million in cash on its books, a deal to sell a 108-qubit system to the Indian government's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, and a 128-qubit platform actively shipping. The technology is advancing -- no question. But its revenue base is thin enough that valuing the stock with any precision is an exercise in guesswork. Rigetti's market cap today implies commercial traction that the company hasn't yet demonstrated. Its cash cushion is long, which means this isn't an existential story. It's just an early one. I'm watching, not buying.
IonQ is the most compelling quantum computing company from a pure business standpoint. In Q1, its revenue reached $64.7 million -- up 755% year over year -- full-year guidance was raised to a range of $260 to $270 million, and its backlog hit $470 million. The company has government contracts, enterprise cloud deals, and a roadmap to fault-tolerant computing that has earned genuine respect from analysts.
The stock is trading near $57 after last week's 21% drop, but even at that level, it carries a valuation that prices in years of execution going right. IonQ has the best fundamentals in the pure-play quantum space. The question is whether the market is paying you to own those fundamentals or charging you to own them. Right now, I think it's the latter. The business is exceptional. The entry point is not.
Thanks to its recent acquisition of peer Quantum Circuits, D-Wave is the only dual-platform quantum company -- building both quantum annealing and gate-model systems -- and its quantum annealing hardware is being deployed to solve real enterprise optimization problems today. That tech doesn't need to wait for error-reduction and correction breakthroughs that remain years away. That's the part that gets dismissed because it doesn't fit the "quantum future" narrative. But it's also the part that generates revenue now.
In Q1, D-Wave's revenue was a modest $2.9 million -- but its closed bookings hit $33.4 million, up 1,994% year over year. The company signed a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University and a $10 million quantum-computing-as-a-service deal with a Fortune 100 company in the same quarter. Remaining performance obligations surged by 563%. Management guided for the bulk of 2026 revenue to hit in the second half of the year as those contracts convert.
The stock is down around 20% year to date and trades at roughly $23 per share. To me, D-Wave is the quantum stock for which the market is most clearly pricing in yesterday's skepticism while ignoring today's booking momentum. It is not the most technically impressive name in the sector. It is the one doing the most business right now. Also, at this price, that distinction matters.
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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Honeywell International and IonQ. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.